Should the New York Islanders Have Chosen Eberle Over Palmieri?

Let’s get something clear right off the bat here. One of the biggest debates across the New York Islanders fanbase, besides head coach Barry Trotz’s handling of Oliver Wahlstrom with the media on a nightly basis, is the controversial topic that came to life on July 18, 2021 and one that heated up on September 1, 2021.  

And one that is fuming right now.

The day, the day that apparently will live in infamy, was that day in July when the New York Islanders decided not to protect forward Jordan Eberle, which left him vulnerable in the 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.

Eberle was more than likely headed to Seattle—which he was. 

On the first day of September, the Islanders invested $20 million over four years to retain the skillset of Kyle Palmieri.

Although I did not tap the telephone of New York Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello nor did I sneak into his office, the move to expose Eberle and then sign forward Kyle Palmieri had a lot to do with consistency. 

Through the first two rounds of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Palmieri had seven goals and two assists in the 12 playoff games. But against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the semi-finals, Palmieri was scoreless in the seven-game series but pointless.

Eberle had four goals in the 2021 postseason, his biggest coming in Game 6 against Tampa to get the Islanders on the board before an eventual comeback and overtime winner by Anthony Beauvillier to force a Game 7.

The overall postseason production was another reason the Islanders were keen on keeping Palmieri, as it showed the potential Palmieri had in the Islanders’ system. 

Before the season, I wrote an article asking the question, is Kyle Palmieri an upgrade over Jordan Eberle? 

It was a question that could not be answered then, nor can it be answered now, especially given the fact that Palmieri has played in just 28 games this season, and both franchises have been an absolute mess.

Here’s a tidbit from that piece:

“Looking at the careers of both forwards, Eberle has had the better offensive numbers. His 1.05 goals per 60 minutes beat that of Palmieri’s 0.85. Point-wise, Eberle has produced 0.71 points per game over his 11-year career, knocking off Palmieri’s 0.59 points per game over that same span.”

On the surface, it’s easy to say that Jordan Eberle has had the better offensive career. 

And with his 12 goals and 13 assists so far in 2021-22, compared to Palmieri’s one goal and six assists, the production is not even close.

What if we looked more in-depth at the numbers?

What if I told you that Jordan Eberle has not scored a goal in 20 contests? What if I told you that Eberle went scoreless in Seattle’s first six contests, then scored eight goals in eight games, including a three-goal game against the Buffalo Sabres?

The streakiness to Eberle’s game is why the Islanders decided to move on, amongst cap reasons. 

“But Jordan Eberle’s 12 goals would put him 2nd on the Islanders in…”

Yes, I know how statistics work and how bigger numbers are better than small numbers in most sports, except golf. 

Kyle Palmieri has not been streaky in 2021-22, he’s just severely underperformed. 

But it’s now about the now. The past is in the past, and the Islanders ultimately did not get the job done. And Palmieri has failed mightily. 

The Islanders put faith in Palmieri to be that consistent goal scorer.

Due to his performance and others, the Islanders offense has struggled, hence their placement in the standings.

Had Palmieri just struggled pre-injury this season, or is his grinding style of play compared to Eberle’s skill-based game detrimental to his longevity as a consistent player in the NHL? 

Palmieri had a career-worst year with a brutal New Jersey Devils team a year ago. Were Palmieri’s struggles impacted by the lack of skill around him, or was it the other way around, with the Devils struggling because of a lack of production from Palmieri?

More than likely a combination of both.

For the Islanders sake, who have the now 31-year old Kyle Palmieri locked up for another three years, they have to hope Palmieri is just having a rough season.

Let’s be honest, who besides Mat Barzal and Brock Nelson have had strong offensive seasons so far?

Sports fans love to judge, with the term “judge in small sample sizes” actually a bolded statement in the mental terms and agreements fans sign.

Sports fans are not realistic; none of us are.

Kyle Palmieri’s struggles should be judged. He’s an athlete that has not lived up to expectations.

Should he be thrown to the proverbial curb after just 28 games in his in what is his first season (start to finish) as an Islander, in a season where pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Islanders? 

No.

The same way Jordan Eberle will not be defined by his “eight goals in eight games” or by his lack of goals as of late, given the team around him.

Both players will be defined by how they help their teams win.

And right now, while one player has helped his cause more than the other, both franchises have not won and are more than likely not going to be competing in postseason play. 

If I may add my two cents, if I’m the Islanders, which I’m not, I would have taken the “consistent” Kyle Palmieri over the “streaky” Jordan Eberle. 

Now hindsight is 20/20. 

The Islanders offense needed consistency, and management decided Palmieri was the best option to become a more well-rounded hockey club. 

It did not work out yet, and it will be interesting to see what happens next season, pending the many expected moves the Islanders will be making at the trade deadline and in the offseason. 

But to say Eberle was the right move over Palmieri on Feb. 2, 2022, based on production on two separate teams, in two different systems, in a season of horror, is a bit premature. 

Let’s chat in four years.