Projecting Alexander Romanov’s Next Deal

As the NHL world just saw the Oilers fail to match the offer sheets to Phillip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, the New York Islanders summer slowly trickles away. 

With the only fireworks this summer seeing Anthony Duclair signed along with Maxim Tsyplakov choosing New York, it’s been slower than some expected. The only notable departures are Matt Martin, Cal Clutterbuck, and Robert Bortuzzo. 

There’s still an outside chance that Bortuzzo ends up on a PTO, especially factoring in the dearth of any depth on the defense for the Islanders. There are other options for that role as well. Still, knowing the past and how comfortable Lou Lamoriello ordinarily is with players he knows, I wouldn’t rule out Bortuzzo sticking around on a PTO or eventually in Bridgeport. 

That’s This Year. What Does Next Year Look Like?

Next summer is when things get spicy. Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Brock Nelson, and Kyle Palmieri all need new deals. In addition, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee will enter the final years of their contracts. Hard decisions will be made, and many of them will be made during this upcoming season.

One of the most intriguing is that of Romanov. Romanov, 24, will once again be a restricted free agent. He will command a raise from his current salary of just $2.5 per year. Romanov comes off a year in which he played the most minutes on average in his career. He also grew this year analytically, showing strength with his shot blocks and few penalty minutes. 

The issues he had were sometimes obvious. He missed assignments on the penalty kill and overall looked shakiest when the Islanders were down a man. But he’s still young. Predominantly defensive-defensemen hardly peak at just 24. He did chip in a career-high 7 goals, shooting an improved 6% compared to his previous career average of roughly 2%.

All in all, Romanov is a strong, budding defensive defenseman. He’s also played a perfect Robin to Dobson’s Batman, which cannot be discounted. The longer they’ve been together, the more comfortable they’ve looked.

All of this builds into this season. Lamoriello has balked thus far at extending anyone who needs a new deal by next summer. It’s an interesting move by the veteran President and GM of the Islanders.

Comparables, Comparables

Then again, it could backfire. With the cap only rising, Romanov is only going to cost more. His agent will play the cap percentage game rather than raw numbers. One strong comparable for Romanov is Brandon Carlo.

The Bruins signed Carlo to a six-year extension after he’d played four NHL seasons. To that point, Carlo had steadily matured under a transforming Bruins team, going from one led by Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron to one led by younger faces like David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy.

Carlo had never eclipsed four goals and had a career-high 19 points, with his peak ice time clocking in at a peak of 20:55 per game. Romanov’s career high in points is 20, and his peak ice time per game is 20:50.

Carlo’s six-year deal carried an AAV of $4.1 million per year. In the cap percentage, it’s worth roughly 5% of the 2021-22 NHL Salary Cap. If the current projections for another 5% rise to the cap, the NHL would have a cap limit of around $92.4 million. Romanov could seek $4.62 per year on a six-year deal if they went to work on it now.

However, as far as anyone’s aware, Lamoriello is not in a rush. The risk he incurs is if Romanov takes another step forward, garners even more points due to playing with Dobson.

If Romanov plays more and steps forward, his representation could turn to Esa Lindell’s extension in 2019, where he got a six-year deal worth $5.8 million per season. Before the extension, he had a career-high of seven goals and 27 points. At the time of signing, that deal was worth 7.12% of the cap, which in the potential 2025-26 terms equates to $6.58 per season.

Potential Resolution

That’s nearly a $2 million per year bridge between routes for Romanov and the Islanders. Likely, the deal ends up being somewhere in the middle. Perhaps a six-year deal at $5.5 million could be in order, keeping him just below veteran Adam Pelech in the team’s pecking order.

If it is that high, the question becomes how the Islanders can afford it. When it’s all said and done, Dobson’s contract could be as high as Mat Barzal’s. If the Islanders decide to part ways with Palmieri, that could be an option for where the money comes from.

It might be moving on from the final year of Pageau or Lee’s contract, but that’s still to be determined. For now, Romanov looks set to double his current salary by this time next year.