Offseason Predictions for the Islanders: Trades and All

Finally, 258 days after the season started, it is officially over. The Florida Panthers have won the Stanley Cup over the Edmonton Oilers in a seven-game series. It took a long time, but it was a truly thrilling season. Now, the offseason will commence. The draft is in three days, and free agency is in six. It’s time to buckle up, things are going to get bumpy.

The Islanders’ offseason has already seen a pair of minor moves, with Maxim Tsyplakov’s signing and Kyle MacLean’s re-signing. Those moves should end up feeling more like an appetizer than what’s coming, as the Islanders are long overdue for some changes.

Florida’s winning the cup should teach the Islanders a lesson—being aggressive works. Two of the most aggressive teams in the NHL trade market won consecutively. What the Islanders do, though, will depend on several factors, including who they choose to re-sign and whom they don’t.

I’m not an insider- I don’t have any sources involved with this. What I’m writing here is pure speculation. All I’ve got is a gut feeling and a sense that this summer (or maybe just this week) will yield actual change for the Islanders. It became abundantly clear this year that the Islanders, as currently constructed, are not good enough. They have great pieces, but they need more.

This article will cover my predictions, starting with the Islanders’ free agents—who stays and who goes. Then, I’ll discuss the NHL Draft and whether they will actually keep the 20th overall pick before finally discussing who else may leave.

Once again, full disclosure. I have absolutely no sources. These thoughts and predictions are just predictions- nothing more, nothing less. Have some fun with it. Once it’s all said and done, I will grade myself on how well I did. For now, let’s get to my Crystal Ball.

Islanders Free Agents: Who Stays and Who Goes

We have already gone over a lot of this during our June Primers. MacLean signing for the league minimum for three years was massive, as he figures to be a key part of the team’s depth that entire time.

That leaves us with the RFAs: Simon Holmstrom, Oliver Wahlstrom, Ruslan Iskhakov, and Dennis Cholowski.

Holmstrom will most likely sign a two-year bridge, with AFPAnalytics projecting it to be $1.5 per year. That would be good value for the Islanders, especially over the course of two years.

Wahlstrom seems ready to go. I can’t imagine the Islanders will want to let him go for free, as he isn’t totally valueless. He could be a part of a larger trade or for a later-round draft pick. At this point, I don’t see a path forward for Wahlstrom in the Islanders organization.

Iskhakov will stay with the Islanders. The story that was reported earlier this year about him leaving to go sign with CSKA Moscow made sense when he didn’t get any looks at the NHL level. Then, he was there for game 82 and the playoffs, even getting into game four. Iskhakov will sign a one-year deal, right around the league minimum.

Cholowski is decent depth for the organization. If they want him to stick around, they’ll give him a qualifying offer, but if not, you’ll see him pop up on the list of unqualified players, which will end his tenure with the Islanders. My gut says he sticks solely due to the organization’s lack of defenseman depth. However, it’s possible he wants to go. After all, with all the injuries to the defense, he never got a look.

Now, on to the UFAs: Mike Reilly, Robert Bortuzzo, Sebastian Aho, Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin

This is where it gets interesting. The Islanders will make some tough decisions here.

Reilly came in through waivers and became everything the Islanders could’ve wanted. He only doesn’t stick around if he wants a big contract. The Islanders can’t afford to offer him big money, and he’s likely looking at a two-year deal. AFPAnalytics projects him at 3x$3, but there’s just no way the Islanders go there. I think we see a lower money and term deal, probably closer to 2x$2.

The Islanders acquired Bortuzzo while in serious trouble, seeing Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield go down with injuries. Bortuzzo stepped in and helped steady the ship. He’s older, at 35 years old, but he explicitly said he wants to stay during locker clean-out day. I don’t see why the Islanders shouldn’t bring him back, especially in a seventh defensemen type of role. Bortuzzo’s not getting anything above the minimum. He’s a good veteran presence to have around, especially with his Stanley Cup Ring from 2019 with the St Louis Blues.

Aho seems likely to go. He entered the year as part of the defensive lineup but quickly got beat out by Reilly. Aho’s been here since 2017 when he arrived in Bridgeport and worked his way through the AHL to the NHL, where he had some solid impact. His inconsistency and size caused him some issues. It just feels like a fresh start could help Aho prolong his career.

Clutterbuck has been an Islander since he arrived during the 2013 offseason. He’s played 718 games for the organization and 76 playoff games. Clutterbuck formed one-third of the Identity Line with Martin and Casey Cizikas. He’s served as an alternate captain since 2014. All of this to say, I think a change would be good for the Islanders. They could use the open spot in the lineup for a fresh player. Clutterbuck, however, still is believed in this locker room and organization. I’d be shocked if Lamoriello doesn’t give Clutterbuck another year laced with veteran performance bonuses.

Martin, however, is going to depart, I think. He was healthy-scratched at times and struggled in Patrick Roy’s speedier system. It also makes more sense to move on from Martin, with Tsyplakov and Iskahkov playing the left side. The Islanders need flexibility, and letting Martin walk out the door is an easy way to open up another spot while also getting a decade younger.

NHL Draft:

Entering the Draft, the Islanders have three picks in the first two rounds, then only three picks in the last five rounds. The first three picks are the 20th overall pick, along with the 54th and 61st overall picks.

It would not surprise me if the Islanders only use one of those picks. I believe keeping the 20th overall pick does nothing but hurt the Islanders in the short term. They need players now, not in three years.

That leads me to my big prediction for the draft. My gut tells me the Islanders will acquire Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers, 28, fits the Islanders’ needs perfectly. He’s a constant goalscorer and can play up and down the lineup. He’s got some speed in his game, as well. Ehlers would complete the Islanders’ first line, something they’ve desperately needed. Now, with prospect Rutger McGroarty being available, I wonder if the Islanders try for both.

The cost for both is likely the 20th overall, plus one of the second-rounders as well. Jean-Gabriel Pageau may be apart of that trade, as well.

Other Departures?

Regardless, Pageau’s departure from the organization is another trade that gets made. It just feels like Pageau is set to go. The Islanders have plenty of centers without him, and moving on opens up precious cap space. It’s space the Islanders could desperately use.

Anders Lee is another question mark. With his high salary, it’s going to be tough to move on, save for a buyout. We will know within 48 hours if that is indeed the Islanders’ route, but I expect the captain to be back for another season.

Final Thoughts

Okay, Okay. Initially, this was going to include free agency, but it’s just too long. Let’s call this part one! Part two will come this Saturday ahead of Free Agency. The piece has a lot to it, plus so much is going to change ahead of Free Agency. It’s better off on its own.

Clearly, I’m calling for a flurry of activity this week within the next 72 hours. The buyout window is open, with waivers for those coming at 2 o’clock today. It’s going to be busy, busy, busy. The Islanders will be active. Let’s just see how it all unfolds. I’ll have you covered here, at NYI Hockey Now, and on Twitter @rustymac26