The Upcoming, Season-Defining Stretch Outlined:

The New York Islanders (13-15-7) have not had a good start to the year. Be it injuries, blown leads, or league-worst special teams. Something has always held the team back. With Christmas in the rearview mirror, the Islanders have six weeks to turn this ship around.

Rumors are already swirling around the future of multiple Islanders, most notably Brock Nelson. If the losses continue to pile up, there’s not going to be a world where Nelson stays on the Island. Ditto that sentiment for Kyle Palmieri.

While rumors sell, and right, the odds are high that Nelson gets dealt, nothing’s final. As Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello would say, “If you have time, use it.”

With six weeks to go until the net NHL stoppage for the Four Nation’s Face-Off, the 2024-25 Islanders have 20 games to save this season and this iteration of the core.

The Initial Wave:

A key component of this stretch starts this weekend. Tonight and tomorrow, the Islanders play a home-and-home with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Those Penguins currently occupy fourth place in the Metropolitan Division, four points clear of the Islanders, who sit in last.

Two clean regulation wins would put the Islanders back above the Penguins and back at NHL .500. Two regulation losses would be utterly devastating and drop the Islanders to 13-17-7, a virtually impossible hole to dig themselves out of.

Another home-and-home immediately follows, with John Tavares‘ Toronto Maple Leafs. After being pantsed by the Islanders on Hockey Night in Canada, one would think the Leafs would have some extra motivation for the games, especially if Auston Matthews returns before or during said games.

After the home end with Toronto on January 2, the Islanders have two days off before heading up north to take on the Boston Bruins on January 5. Then, the team departs westward for a two-game trip to see the Vegas Golden Knights and the Utah Hockey Club.

Seven games in the next 14 days. If the Islanders manage a 3-3-1 record, is that enough? Or will that sink them lower in the standings? It’s the most likely record, assuming splits with Pittsburgh and Toronto while winning 1 out of 3 games against Boston, Vegas, and Utah.

The smart money says merely treading water isn’t enough. As Matt Martin said to NYI Hockey Now last week, any playoff team needs a dominant stretch, particularly a long winning streak.

The Season-Long Seven-Game Home Stand:

On January 14, the Islanders return home. Baked into the schedule is a monstrous seven-game home stand right in the heart of January. Moreover, the first five teams they play are not in playoff spots. The home stand plays as follows: Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Flyers (again), Carolina Hurricanes, and Colorado Avalanche.

That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of competition, and if the Islanders want any chance of competing for a playoff spot, they’ll have to win six of those seven home games, and I’d argue they’ll have to be at or above .500 heading into that stretch.

An optimistic estimation of the Islanders’ six wins out of seven, coupled with our earlier prediction, would put the Islanders’ full record at 22-19-9. While this would be an obvious improvement, it’s not as if the Islanders have done well against lower-rung opponents.

One of the season’s worst losses came at home against the Anaheim Ducks.

The Grueling Final Stretch:

After the Colorado game, which will end the home stand, to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers for a third time in two weeks.

Two days later, the Islanders begin the season’s hardest eight-day stretch. The team will play five games, four of which are on the road, and every road game is a back-to-back.

What’s more, those opponents start off with a tour of the Sunshine State against the Tampa Bay Lightning and then the Florida Panthers. 48 hours later, the Islanders take on the Vegas Golden Knights in UBS Arena.

The team gets two days off to recuperate from facing three of the last four Stanley Cup Champions before heading up to Winnipeg and Minnesota for a back-to-back to close out the six weeks against the current top two teams in the Central Division.

The last time the Islanders went on a road trip to those cities, their head coach didn’t return home with the team.

It almost seems predetermined the Islanders won’t be able to generate momentum. If they are able to rip a long win streak like Martin said, all bets are off. Outside of that, this team could very well be circling the drain.