One Month from the Draft: Defensive Decisions Loom Large

The New York Islanders’ summer of change continues to roll on. After the long holiday weekend, Islanders’ new general manager Mathieu Darche has to hit the ground running. The NHL Draft begins in exactly one month. July 1 comes four days after that, exactly five weeks from today.

In the short term, this is also a busy week for Darche. At some point, he will be formally introduced at a press conference. Then, this weekend, the NHL Draft Combine kicks off in Buffalo. Multiple reports state there could be increased activity at the combine, thanks to all 32 teams being present.

Since every team successfully appealed to the NHL for a remote draft system, it’s the only time all 32 teams will have people in the same room this summer. While there are serious questions about Islanders’ forwards, such as pending free agent Kyle Palmieri and trade candidate Jean-Gabriel Pageau, nothing looms larger over the franchise than the impending series of defensive-minded decisions Darche must make.

Today, we’re going to focus on the left side of the chart first. First, let’s break down where everyone stands.

Is There Anybody Safe?

The Islanders used 13 defensemen total throughout this past season. That’s the most in one season in over a decade. Of those 13, only one is no longer in the organization (Dennis Cholowski- traded to New Jersey at the deadline).

Of the other 12, eight need new contracts. Five are RFAs, and three are UFAs. The RFA list is as follows: Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Adam Boqvist, Scott Perunovich, and Samuel Bolduc. Now, the UFAs: Tony DeAngelo, Mike Reilly, Grant Hutton. Bridgeport regulars Travis Mitchell and Aidan Fulp also need new deals, but both are RFAs.

The only other NHL defensemen on the roster with a contract are Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Ryan Pulock. Isaiah George, who split time between the clubs, has two more years on his entry-level contract.

So, who’s safe? Frankly, nobody is. One could argue that Pulock and Mayfield, armed with their full no-trade clauses, have the most security. Pelech’s full no-trade transitions to a 16-team no-trade on July 1. The Islanders will be looking to free up some money to go big-game hunting, and all three have their names running through the rumor mill.

Roy’s System & Matthew Schaefer’s Potential Impact:

Head Coach Patrick Roy, whose fate remains unknown but is likely to return, runs a fast-paced system that needs mobile defensemen. Matthew Schaefer, the top prospect available, could fit that system quite well.

If Schaefer is the pick, and George is NHL-ready, that leaves the Islanders with a decision on the left side. Either pony up to pay Romanov long term despite his mixed results in big minutes, or keep the cost-controlled Pelech, who still puts up excellent results, with the caveat of knowing he’s prone to miss 20 games or so, as he has the last three years.

In that world, it might make sense to deal Romanov for a scorer, or make an attractive package to Utah for the fourth overall pick to try and land James Hagens, if he’s there.

Yes, the Islanders could try to run a trio of Schaefer, Romanov, and George, but successful teams tend to have veteran presences as well. Pelech would be a perfect, responsible leader for a new-look blue line. With an exploding cap, Pelech’s $5.75 hit is more than manageable. If you’re signing Romanov for anything more than two or three years, he will likely be eclipsing that figure with relative ease.

Mike Reilly seemed to be a fit for Roy’s system, but he never really had a chance to play after his heart surgery. If he’d like to stay as a potential seventh defenseman, it could work. But for now, it seems more likely the Islanders will let him walk to free agency.

The Depth & Bridgeport:

Beneath those larger questions, there remain heavy questions about the lower-rung players. Scott Perunovich arrived in a mid-season trade, played decently for being thrown in the fire, then the New York Rangers burned him and Ryan Pulock, and Perunovich didn’t play for two months.

He’s an RFA, so Darche may want to keep the guys he can control. It also gives an insurance policy to the Islanders if they take Schaefer and he’s not quite ready, or if George needs more seasoning and you’ve dealt one of Pelech or Romanov.

In Bridgeport, Samuel Bolduc played 69 games, most of any defenseman, and had a significantly better second half of the season than the first. He’s an RFA, and the last time he played an NHL game, his coach hung him out to dry in the media after a critical mistake. Then he was waived and hadn’t been thought to be recalled, even after injuries continued to pile up.

Bolduc’s future is uncertain. Though there’s an NHL build within him, he’s failed to take that next step with the Islanders. Whether or not Darche will qualify him or let him go will be an intriguing decision.

It doesn’t help Bolduc’s case that Travis Mitchell continues to improve. Mitchell, 25, signed after captaining Cornell in his senior year of college. He played a career-high 65 games and put up decent enough numbers for the historically bad Bridgeport side. The Islanders even called him up for a West Coast road trip, though he did not make his NHL debut. He’s also an RFA, but it’ll be an easy decision to qualify and sign him.

Jesse Pulkkinen arrived late in the year, and the 2024 second-rounder has a hulking size and frame, something that has the Islanders excited. Calle Odelius, a 2023 second-rounder, also remains in Bridgeport. Marshall Warren had an impressive rookie season, as well.

All Together:

Clearly, there’s a ton of fluidity with the left side for the Islanders. If they take Schaefer and he’s NHL-ready, it becomes even more pressing that some of these decisions get made.

The easiest of which, ironically, might be Bolduc. It’s probably time for the Islanders to cut bait with Bolduc, and a fresh start might be best for all. With Romanov and Pelech, it comes down to sheer value and whether or not Schaefer is the pick.

Reilly and Perunovich ultimately may come down to who’s younger and under team control. Darche has his hands full, and this is just one side of the defense. It’s rare in the NHL that you see so many diverging paths all coming together and relying upon one another all in one set of five weeks, but that’s exactly where Darche and the Islanders find themselves.

The NHL Draft is in one month. Free Agency’s four days after round one ends. The Draft Combine starts this weekend. Buckle up.