Trade Deadline is Two Weeks Away: What is the Islanders’ Plan?

The 4 Nations Face-Off is officially in the rearview mirror. Canada defeated the United States in an utterly thrilling game last night, 3-2 in overtime. In it, Brock Nelson played a key role for the United States, even if they came up short.

Now, attention whips back to the NHL for the resumption of the regular season.  The Islanders play against the Dallas Stars on Sunday evening. Dallas plays in New Jersey against the Devils on Saturday, so it’ll be a presumably tired Stars team on Sunday.

It’s a great opportunity for the Islanders to pick up two points. However, individual games at this point seem minor. In just 14 days, the Islanders can look very different. Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri are pending UFAs. The Islanders, very publicly, tabled a contract offer to Nelson.

What Nelson decides charts the path ahead for the Islanders.

Step One: Answer the Brock Nelson Question

Nelson’s decision will reverberate throughout the NHL. He’s currently the top available trade target on multiple rumor boards. He just played a shutdown role on Team USA and played well. Last night, he played on USA’s third line with Jack Hughes and J.T. Miller after Matthew Tkachuk’s injury flared up.

Despite the expanded role, Nelson failed to record a point in the tournament. However, that won’t hurt his trade value at all. If anything, the expanded visibility will help inflate the cost of acquisition.

For now, it seems the situation remains in a holding pattern. The Islanders and Lou Lamoriello tabled an offer and are negotiating. From what he’s said to the media, it sounds like Nelson may want to move on and test free agency. Lamoriello has two weeks to decide.

Once the decision is made, and it needs to be made within a week, the Islanders have two options. The options are based solely on the results of the games played in the lead-up to the trade deadline.

Option One: Sell it All

If the Islanders trade Nelson, this starts this option off. After a Nelson trade, if the team loses games, they will have no choice but to sell off a few more pieces. Kyle Palmieri can net some extra draft capital.

Teams may call about Jean-Gabriel Pageau, but dealing him out seems unlikely if Nelson goes. With Noah Dobson practicing, it’s worth investigating if anyone would like Anthony DeAngelo as depth. He cleared waivers initially, but with how strong he’s looked since returning to the NHL, he’d likely fetch a mid-round pick from a contender.

Any other larger moves, like trading away one of Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, or Scott Mayfield, will be easier in the summer.

Option Two: Flip Assets for a Nelson Replacement/Top-Line Forward

The other side of the coin is what if the team wins? If the Islanders are winning games, trading Nelson becomes difficult. However, you can still do it if you get valuable enough assets in return.

We know the Colorado Avalanche will move Casey Mittelstadt, but he has not looked great in the 2C hole with the Avs. Maybe the Islanders can flip assets to the Buffalo Sabres for Dylan Cozens. Cozens once scored 31 goals and 68 points in one season, but in his last 133 NHL games, he has scored 29 goals and 74 points, a complete nosedive.

Cozens sure seems like a good bet, though. Hey, the Carolina Hurricanes might flip Mikko Rantanen. While unlikely, if the Islanders are surging, why not throw your hat in that ring? If you can sign him long-term, he’d be more than worth it.

In short, trading Nelson creates a hole but gives the Islanders an arsenal to replace him in one way or another. To me, keeping Nelson at this point is reckless. The team needs a reset in some way, and continuing to run the same team back again and again will not yield better results.

Overall, the Islanders’ plan for the deadline hinges on Nelson’s decision and whether the team wins or loses out of the gate. We’ll have an even clearer picture of what it is in seven days. Buckle up, everybody.