Roster Tier 1.0: Coin Tosses, Who Stays & Who Could Go

The New York Islanders’ search for a new executive(s) to lead the franchise forward is well underway. The search will be extremely expansive, with no stones left untouched. However, that search will take some time, with a hire figuring to be over a week away.

What is certain is that the Islanders’ roster will change this summer. How much it changes will come down to who gets hired and contract discussions with Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov. With so much uncertainty, it’s time to break down the roster into tiers of roster safety. It’ll range from locks to stay to rumored exits.

Tier #1: The Core

F Mathew Barzal, F Bo Horvat, G Ilya Sorokin

This is the core. At this moment in time, nobody else on the roster is safe. Whether it’s due to roster turnover, high cap hits, or negotiations that could sour, there’s a lot up in the air.

Mathew Barzal missed 52 games this season, but he’s the best skater on this team. His offensive presence was missed heavily, particularly on the power-play set up. Signed through 2031 at a reasonable $9.15 million cap hit and a 22-team NTC, it’s a lock he’ll be back next season.

Bo Horvat saw a sharp decline in production, posting just 28 goals and 57 points over 81 games, his lowest in an 82-game season since he scored 31 and 52 in 2021-22, playing just 70 games. At his exit interview, he expressed frustration with his production, saying he should score 30 goals every season at a minimum. With full trade protection and also being signed through 2031, Horvat will remain an Islander.

Ilya Sorokin is the franchise’s best goaltender since Billy Smith. While a back injury hurt his 2023-24 season, when he was at his best this year, it showed why he signed an eight-year deal. He holds a full no-move clause and is signed through 2032.

Tier #2: Extremely Likely to Return

F Simon Holmstrom, F Maxim Tsyplakov, F Marc Gatcomb, F Kyle MacLean, D Noah Dobson, D Alexander Romanov, D Adam Boqvist, G Marcus Hogberg

This tier includes the youngest players on the roster, all either under contract or pending RFAs. Had Lou Lamoriello not been fired, it would be a done deal that Simon Holmstrom and Maxim Tsyplakov would be in the tier above.

Barring something unforeseen, the pair of RFAs will return. Both produced strong numbers (Holmstrom 20 goals, Tsyplakov 35 points) and bring a lot of value on both ends of the ice. It’ll simply come down to contract talks. For Tsyplakov, there’s an outside chance a new GM could lead to him returning to Russia.

Marc Gatcomb and Kyle MacLean worked very well as a duo. Gatcomb scored eight goals over his 39 games and made the most of his January recall, while MacLean stumbled hard out of the gate but recovered down the stretch. Gatcomb’s an RFA, while MacLean is signed for two more years at the league minimum. It’d be a surprise if either left the organization.

Noah Dobson’s fate became foggy near the trade deadline. Some rumors swirled about Lamoriello including him in an offer for Elias Pettersson, but nothing ever came from it. With a new GM and strong analytics despite a down year offensively, Dobson at 25 is a building block for any GM. He’s an RFA, so barring a snag in negotiations, he’ll be back on the backend.

Ditto that for Alexander Romanov. He’s a young building block for a new GM to build around. Like Dobson, the only way he doesn’t return is if negotiations turn sour and he is shipped out.

Adam Boqvist is here almost exclusively due to his RFA status. Tony DeAngelo told me he “loves” how Boqvist plays, and critiqued the Columbus Blue Jackets for buying him out last summer, along with the Florida Panthers for waiving him. When Boqvist played for the Islanders, he showed well, posting two goals and eight points over 17 games. As a young, controllable asset still with a high ceiling, a new GM will keep him on the cheap. Lamoriello had a deal done with Boqvist, but no one knows where that stands now.

Marcus Hogberg is under contract for the 2025-26 season. Shown to be a serviceable backup before injury, he’ll be back, whether it’s in Bridgeport or on Long Island.

Tier #3: Likely to Return

F Anthony Duclair, F Casey Cizikas, F Hudson Fasching, D Scott Perunovich, G Semyon Varlamov

This tier is where things become a little bit less clear. Hudson Fasching is an unrestricted free agent and plays a hard, consistent style. He showed well for himself in an expanded third-line role with Pierre Engvall and Casey Cizikas, and his contract would be very cheap. The drawbacks are a lack of finishing at times and health concerns. He’s more ideal in a fourth-line role, but with Gatcomb and MacLean, he may be squeezed out.

Anthony Duclair signed a four-year, $14 million contract on July 1 last year. Then, he tore his groin in the fifth game of the season and missed the next 28 games. After returning, he admitted he was not his usual self. His skating took a massive nosedive, a clear sign of the injury affecting him. He left the team after Patrick Roy publicly humiliated his player, and his future is unclear. With Lamoriello gone and Roy a possibility to go too, perhaps Duclair remains, as he holds a full no-trade clause.

Casey Cizikas is signed through 2027 at a modest $2.5 million cap hit. He started the year at wing and struggled. He opened up to the media, citing that he lost his confidence away from his natural center position. When he returned to the dot, he thrived between Engvall and Fasching. Roy disputed Cizikas’ confidence publicly, saying he can play anywhere, not just center. Without any trade protection, it’s possible a new general manager could look to flip Cizikas to open up some cap room.

Scott Perunovich is a pending RFA, and despite some inconsistencies, new executives love controllable assets. Perunovich is firmly that, a controllable asset who can be your 6/7th defenseman.

Semyon Varlamov’s fate is tied directly to his health. He underwent a knee procedure and is still rehabbing now. Varlamov told the media he anticipates being ready for camp, but is not certain yet. His full no-trade clause pivots to a 16-team no-trade list on July 1. If he’s healthy, he likely returns. No team wants to acquire a goalie at age 37 (turns 37 on April 27) with health questions, so the only question is health.

Tier #4: Coin Flips

F Kyle Palmieri, F Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F Anders Lee, F Pierre Engvall, D Tony DeAngelo, D Mike Reilly

This is where the turnover begins. It’s all but guaranteed that at least one or more of these players will not return to the Islanders.

Starting with Kyle Palmieri, at the trade deadline, an extension seemed all but assured. Lamoriello did not trade him, citing the ability to work out an extension. One never formally got done, and now whatever handshake deal may have been made is out the window. Palmieri emphatically stated his desire to return to the Islanders on numerous occasions, but a new decision maker holds all the cards.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau is the Islanders’ number one trade chip. He has just one more year at $5 million per year with a 16-team no-trade clause. At the deadline, Lamoriello received offers but opted to keep his center. With Calum Ritchie waiting in the wings along with a regime change, a deal is very possible.

All those changes apply to Anders Lee. The career Islander scored 29 goals and 54 points in a rejuvenated year. The Islanders’ captain since 2019 has one year left on his deal at $7 million, and a new general manager could look to set his stamp on the franchise by kicking off a rebuild/retool by dealing Lee, freeing up cap in the process. Lee holds a 15-team no-trade list.

Pierre Engvall is a strict buyout candidate. A frequent healthy scratch and two-time waiver survivor, Engvall battled inconsistency all season but finished strong. With good analytics, the new general manager could very easily give him another chance next season instead of a very lengthy buyout.

Mike Reilly and Tony DeAngelo are two UFAs with a similar skillset, high offensive ability, with less-than-good defensive impacts. It’s very likely only one of the two returns as a possible seventh defenseman, or neither at all.

Tier #5: Someone’s Gotta Go

D Adam Pelech, D Ryan Pulock, D Scott Mayfield

One of the very few guarantees of this summer will be the exit of the trio of veteran defenders. Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield have all spent their entire careers with the Islanders thus far. Pulock and Pelech have both played an identical 650 games with the franchise, with Mayfield just behind at 635.

All three are signed long-term, with Pelech signed through 2029 while Mayfield and Pulock are locked up through 2030.

Pulock and Mayfield hold full no-trade clauses with decreasing levels of play, largely thanks to injuries. Pelech’s no-trade becomes a 16-team no-trade on July 1. Despite having the best on-ice impacts and best impact, Pelech seems to be the easiest to move, thanks to his clause and $5.75 million cap hit.

Pulock wore the ‘A’ down the stretch, but battled an upper-body injury, which led to his downward turn in play style. He holds all the power with his clause, and his longer contract with a $6.15 million cap hit.

Mayfield also holds all the power in his situation with his full no-trade, but after spells as a healthy scratch, he’s likely to be more inclined to waive it. He’s also a buyout candidate, but it would last a decade, likely a preclusive amount of time.