Trades & Playoffs? Forecasting the Rest of the Islanders’ Season

The New York Islanders sit outside, looking in on the playoff picture. The season’s first 55 games have been nothing short of entertaining and frustrating. From highlights to lowlights, this season has had it all. Every single defenseman from the opening night roster suffered an injury and missed time.

At one point, the entire left side from opening night missed a dozen games consecutively. Now, the right side finds itself decimated, and all three members of that side are injured.

There are 27 games left in this season, if you can believe it. On Valentine’s Day, there’s usually closer to 30-35, depending on the team. With the extended pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off, every team had a crammed January, and every single time winces at the gauntlet that March will bring.

Once plays resume, the Islanders have six games before the NHL Trade Deadline. Meanwhile, Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello will have to decide what to do with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, the team’s key pending UFAs.

That brings us to prediction number one.

1. Lou Lamoriello Trades Brock Nelson to a Central Division Foe:

Much has been said about Nelson and his upcoming decision on whether or not to extend with the Islanders. Based on everything publicly said and what Elliotte Friedman alluded to on today’s 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, I believe Nelson will not sign an extension and force Lamoriello to trade him.

The teams we know that want Nelson include the Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, and Colorado Avalanche. Others interested include the Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, and Edmonton Oilers, but they’ve been seen as less likely destinations.

The Wild likely cannot make the money work, so they’d be a summer target if he hits the market on July 1. That leaves us with three primary teams in the race from the Central Division.

Of those interested teams, only Winnipeg has a 2025 first. Experts tout the 2026 NHL Draft as more loaded than the 2025, so it seems teams may hesitate to part with that asset, especially for Nelson, an expected pure-rental if dealt.

My money says the Winnipeg Jets strike a deal for Nelson. They’d send their 2025 1st round pick, a prospect, and maybe a smaller roster piece.

After that, the first six games out of the break will decide Palmieri’s fate.

2. The Islanders go 4-1-1 out of the break

The Islanders come out of the break with a gauntlet in front of them. The Islanders begin with two straight home games against the Stars and the New York Rangers. Then, a one-game trip to Boston to meet the Bruins before returning home for a Saturday matinee with the Nashville Predators. Finally, a trip to Madison Square Garden to see the Rangers again before hosting the Jets the following day.

It’s a gauntlet, with those six games coming in just 10 days. Yet, the theme with the Islanders all year has been battling and persevering. With the extra rest, I believe the Islanders will come out of the gate firing. They’ll sweep both games against the Rangers, catapulting themselves ahead of their rivals in the playoff race.

As for the other four games, they’ll find a way to win at least two and take someone else to overtime. Somewhere in there is a Brock Nelson trade, likely earlier on out of the trip. But with the added winning leaves, Lamoriello has no choice but to hold onto Palmieri and make an addition.

3. Islanders keep Palmieri; Make a Splash on Deadline Day

After that extended run of winning, the Islanders will keep Palmieri and figure out what to do contract-wise after the season. Then, with the added assets from trading Nelson, it’s my belief Lamoriello leaves no stone unturned and immediately flips some assets to bolster the forward group on deadline day.

The Islanders have three days off after the game against Winnipeg on March 4. Those days off give Lamoriello a perfect window to shock the world with a major acquisition. We know Lamoriello covets Elias Pettersson, but his availability at this time seems limited. If Lamoriello is forced into dealing Nelson, he will bring someone else in if the team is winning.

He’s never been one to sit on an excess of assets when he believes in his team. Despite that initial run, I believe the schedule will burn out the Islanders. With 15 games in 30 days in March, including a run of 7 games in 13 days in the back half of the month, it’s just too much for a team that’s dealing with the injuries they are. There have been no updates to the statuses of Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson, and Scott Mayfield. All could be skating, but it’s unlikely they’ll be ready to go for the first game next week if they’re not yet.

Fatigue will set in and cost the Islanders a playoff berth.

4. The Islanders Miss the Playoffs Due to Injuries

As stated above, with an influx of injuries, a grueling schedule, and trading away a core piece in Nelson, it’ll be just too much to overcome this year for the Islanders.

They’re as hardworking as any group in the NHL. They stick together, and they believe in themselves. But with a faulty power play and currently no backup goalie to help Ilya Sorokin until Marcus Hogberg is back, it’s just going to be too much.

They’ll finish with between 88 and 92 points, with the cutoff being right around 94 points. It’ll be a cruel pill to swallow, but one necessary for the Islanders to improve for the future. Treading water and going on a big run in March can only be sustainable for so long.