Three Reasons for Pessimism for the Rest of the Islanders’ Season

Yesterday, we looked at three reasons to be positive about the New York Islanders for the rest of the season. The reasons were the team’s sixth-best record in the NHL from January 1 onward, Ilya Sorokin’s amazing form, and the incoming clarity on the team’s direction.

Today, however, we flip that coin over and look at the dark side of it all. When a team is in 12th place and four points outside of a playoff spot, it’s never too hard to see negativity.

Reason #1: The Brock Nelson and Noah Dobson Situations:

The Islanders are the talk of the NHL world right now. This is the first time it’s happened under the iron fist of Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello.  Normally, all rumors and potential discontent have been kept in-house, with no rumors or news leaking.

Instead, in just the last 7-10 days, we’ve got half a dozen Brock Nelson updates. Add in leaked trade negotiations with the Vancouver Canucks involving Noah Dobson, and you’ve got people’s attention. First, the Nelson drama continues to spin. There are currently just 22 days until the NHL Trade Deadline, meaning any decision involving Brock has to come before then.

However, teams interested in Nelson are still being rebuffed and told that Lamoriello is working hard to extend the 33-year-old. That’s not bad news. The team’s been in great form, and Nelson is still a key contributor, so locking him up would be far from a disaster. What would be, however, is the growing sense Lamoriello may not extend him or trade him.

There’s a growing belief that Lamoriello might wait too long to put him on the trade block and get sub-par offers, then opt to keep the forward and hope to extend him in the summer. That sets up for a potential John Tavares repeat, something the Islanders absolutely cannot afford to happen.

Meanwhile, Noah Dobson changed his agency yesterday. The move came just days after his name leaked out in negotiations with Vancouver for Elias Pettersson. While it’s believed to be a business-related decision, its timing is incredibly peculiar. NYI Hockey Now has not heard he’s requested a trade of any kind, but it’s a growing situation worth observing.

Reason #2: Is Making the Playoffs and Losing in Round One Good Enough?

In the previous three seasons, the Islanders stumbled out of the gate and tried to make playoff pushes while clinging onto their key pieces and not selling off. First, in 2021-22, the team missed the playoffs and changed coaches. Then in 22-23, they acquired Bo Horvat mid-year to galvanize the group to a game 82 playoff berth. Lastly, in 23-24, the team surged late and made the playoffs after hiring Patrick Roy midseason.

However, for all that effort, the team has played 11 playoff games in three seasons, all against the Carolina Hurricanes, and they lost in round one soundly both times. After seeing that twice in a row, does anybody want to see it a third time and consider it good enough?

Heck, they’d still need to get back into playoff position first. That’s far from a guarantee,

I don’t think so. The team needs some roster surgery. Something has to change whether it’s a big trade out of nowhere or an actual small sell-off at the deadline leading to an off-season spending spree. The potential assets from trading one of Brock Nelson or Jean-Gabriel Pageau are too much to pass up.

Even in the best-case scenario of surging and making the playoffs just to lose in round one, the end result may leave the team and its fans feeling empty.

Reason #3: The Injuries Just. Won’t. Stop.

The most understated part of this season has easily been the injuries. Every defenseman on the opening night roster has missed multiple games due to injuries. All except Scott Mayfield have or are expected to miss double-digit games, while Mayfield’s status remains murky coming out of the break.

Adam Pelech broke his jaw. Alexander Romanov dealt with an upper-body injury for the first three to four months of the season, playing through it often. After a concussion, Mike Reilly had to get heart surgery. Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock have yet to resume skating.

That’s just the defense.

Anthony Duclair suffered an injury in the fifth game of the season, missed over two months, and since returning, has struggled while still playing through the lingering effects of his injury. Mathew Barzal missed well over a month of action in the first half of the year before returning and getting into form. Then, he blocked a Nikita Kucherov snapshot and injured his kneecap, and in the absolute best-case scenario, returned after St. Patrick’s Day. Realistically, there’s a decent chance Barzal’s out for the season.

Add minor injuries to Simon Holmstrom and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and the picture is ugly. The Islanders have been banged up all season. Only five players have played in all 55 games: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, Casey Cizikas, and Kyle MacLean.

That list says it all. The team is running on fumes, fueled by in-season call-ups like Marc Gatcomb and acquisitions like Scott Perunovich and Anthony DeAngelo. Eventually, reality could set in and derail the season.