John Tavares Leaves the Islanders: Revisited & a Victory Lap for LI

2,514 days ago, the hockey world changed. You all know the story, probably all too well. John Tavares left the New York Islanders to join the Toronto Maple Leafs on July 1, 2018.

That day, in that moment, it felt as if the Islanders bottomed out as a franchise. They’d missed the playoffs in two consecutive seasons. That day, the team’s only signings became Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, and Tom Kuhnhackl.

The entire hockey world pegged the Islanders to finish 30th in the NHL. They lost a surefire Hall of Famer for nothing. Meanwhile, they began planning the parade in Toronto.

What nobody could know then, that day turned out to be perhaps the best thing possible for the Islanders — and perhaps the worst thing imaginable for the Maple Leafs.

The Decision:

For the Islanders, the 2017-18 season quickly became a mess. Any positive momentum from Doug Weight’s job in 2016-17 fizzled out, as the team allowed the most goals in the NHL and finished in the bottom 10 of the NHL. To make matters worse, the Islanders held two first-round picks that year. Their own, and Calgary’s. They held the 10th and 12th best odds of winning that lottery.

Then, the Carolina Hurricanes, positioned right in the middle of those two with the 11th-best odds, won it. Meanwhile, Toronto lost game 7 to the Boston Bruins in TD Garden. With a young core of superstars, the window was just opening for them.

Even so, the Maple Leafs “promoted” Lou Lamoriello to senior advisor, giving Kyle Dubas the General Manager’s chair.

Shortly after, the Islanders lured Lamoriello to Long Island. The Hall of Fame executive’s hiring and subsequent firings of Garth Snow and Doug Weight breathed life into the 2018 offseason. After the Washington Capitals finally won the Stanley Cup, their head coach, Barry Trotz, resigned. Lamoriello snapped him up.

It felt as if the Islanders were finally figuring it out, after years of frustrating nothingness with Snow at the helm. Despite it all, Tavares still wouldn’t re-sign. He never would. He walked to July 1 in a shroud of silence, without notifying the Islanders, and signed with the Maple Leafs on July 1.

Tavares then posted a now-infamous tweet in these parts of himself, as a child, in Toronto bedsheets. He left, and from a hockey standpoint, it made sense to. Toronto had the young core, while the Islanders seemed directionless, even with Lamoriello and Trotz.

Lamoriello released this statement: https://x.com/nyislanders/status/1013502032156733443?s=46, almost intentionally signaling Tavares’ individualistic achievements over the team.

Tavares bet he could win and win big with Toronto, as he knowingly burned up what had been a sparkling legacy with the Islanders.

What’s Happened Since:

But you knew that already. In 2019, the Leafs began as a favorite to win the Stanley Cup. The Islanders began the year with great odds to land the first overall pick. Then, the hockey started. The Leafs excelled in a tough Atlantic Division, winning 46 games and claiming 100 points, earning a rematch with the Boston Bruins as a road team in the series.

The Islanders won 48 games and finished with 103 points, and home ice advantage over Sidney Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins. The Islanders swept Pittsburgh, while Toronto lost in Game 7 in TD Garden for a second consecutive season.

They lost 5-1. Tavares scored the lone Leafs goal. Since that Game 7, the Leafs have played in five more winner-take-all games. They’ve gone 0-5, and Tavares played four (missed 2021 vs Montreal) and has a total of zero points in those contests.

In contrast, Andy Greene and Scott Mayfield have as many career Game 7 goals as Tavares. Thanks to COVID-19, the Islanders have won two 7-game series in Toronto since July 1, 2018. Toronto’s won two total series.

Josh Bailey registered 39 points in 59 playoff games from 2019 to 2021, over the life of his $30 million contract signed in 2018. Tavares only has 31 points in 51 career playoff games with Toronto. Bailey also scored two overtime goals to Tavares’ one. Bailey’s last playoff game came in 2021. Tavares played every season, except 2021, due to injury.

Tavares in round two in his career: 3-2-5 in 17 games. In round two with Toronto, Tavares registered two goals and one assist over 13 total round games. Greene recorded two goals in the 2020 series against Philadelphia, round two. Derrick Brassard also scored two goals and five total points in his only seven round two games with the Islanders in 2020.

Now:

Seven years onward, Tavares’ contract is up. He told the media afterward that he wants to be back in Toronto. What’s unknown is if Toronto even wants him back.

It turns out that for the Islanders, losing Tavares turned out to be the very best thing. Had he stayed, they never develop that trademark underdog, scrappy, “screw you too” type attitude toward the league. Obviously, with Tavares, they’d have had a better roster. But the trickle down effect would be massive.

Brock Nelson never received top-six center minutes, and perhaps leaves as a UFA in 2019. Jean-Gabriel Pageau certainly never gets traded to the Islanders, as the need for a center wouldn’t have been there.

It goes further. With COVID freezing the world, could the Islanders have ever acquired deadline reinforcements like Kyle Palmieri? It’s unlikely. Look at Toronto. Thanks to COVID, they found themselves hamstrung by the “Core Four” and their beefy salaries.

Tavares broke their playoff series victory drought with an OT series winner in Game 6 against a team from Florida in 2023, seven years after he did it for the Islanders. But one series was far from the goal. The goal was to make it back to Conference Finals, then to the Stanley Cup Finals, and ideally, win that first Cup since 1967 for the Leafs.

Instead, Toronto now holds a 23-year drought since making it to the Conference Finals. Ironically, that’s the same length as the Islanders’ playoff drought that Tavares broke in 2016.

Seven years later, Tavares holds zero awards. Despite Hall of Fame numbers and production, he’ll be entering his age-35 season with his biggest moment still being a series-clinching Game 6 Overtime goal in round one, only now he’s done it twice.

As for his legacy? You know what it is here. In Toronto, it’s the “great individual success” that Lamoriello referenced in 2018. A failed captaincy and a failed mission to bring the Stanley Cup home to Toronto in his seven-year contract.

The Islanders, despite the assured recent woes, have some hope. A new executive(s) will be hired in short order, possibly even Brendan Shanahan. They hold the first overall pick, and some solid prospects including Calum Ritchie and Cole Eiserman.

Toronto’s faced with not only Tavares as a UFA, but superstar Mitch Marner, too. Everyone in Toronto is dubbing this the “End of an Era.” Even if it was seven years ago and truly irrelevant to the team today, that isn’t stopping a large swath of Islanders fans from taking a victory lap this morning.

After all, thanks to an elite first year, Toronto took their victory lap:

https://x.com/MatiszJohn/status/1077020228121436161

For the Islanders and their fans, this week should bring a GM hire. Main interviews were held last week, with a potential decision coming down this week. It’s a huge week for the Islanders. Back to business as usual.