How Does Winning Affect the Upcoming Summer?

The New York Islanders are alive. Every time I’ve written the group off, they’ve found a way to dust themselves off and get right back into the playoff hunt.

The Islanders woke up today just three points outside the playoff cut line, chasing down the Montreal Canadiens. Those Habs visit UBS Arena on Thursday, in a game suddenly filled with drama and intrigue.

With a win, the Islanders will be one point back of Montreal, and the only other team that could be ahead is the New York Rangers, who host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday. Put simply, a win and all of a sudden, the Islanders are right there for a playoff spot.

All of this excitement leaves one question. Just how will the winning affect the summer? At the trade deadline, Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello promised change and guaranteed the team would get younger.

But if this team keeps winning and improbably once again makes the playoffs, could the plans change? It’s unlikely for a few reasons, but it’s worth investigating.

NO, This Team Still Has Too Many Defenseman, At Least One Vet Has to Go

Even after the trade deadline and winner, there’s still a massive glut on defense. As the season’s progressed, it’s grown ever so likely the first veteran to go will be Scott Mayfield. When fully healthy, the team views Mayfield as the 7th or 8th defenseman at the moment. Fair or not, it’s where he is. Head Coach Patrick Roy’s system calls for mobile defensemen, something that at this point, Mayfield is not.

Whether it’s a buyout or trade, Mayfield will be gone this summer, barring a big about-face. A buyout for Mayfield would last a decade, and come with a cap hit of $1.17, something not too unmanageable with the rising cap. Despite that, there’s belief in the industry he could still generate some trade interest for a very minimalistic return, if anything.

There’s been talk of Ryan Pulock or Adam Pelech moving on, but with the key roles both play, it seems unlikely either move. Pelech’s No-Trade Clause becomes a 16-team NTC on July 1, so a potential move with him is a bit likelier.

At this point, Scott Perunovich also seems to be an afterthought. It’s likely the six opening-night defensemen for the Islanders next year are: Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Adam Boqvist, and Isaiah George. The door will be open to Perunovich or Anthony DeAngelo to be the seventh man.

This winning streak has not changed anyone’s mind about the defense and whether it will be changing. There will be some changes on the backend.

What About the Centers?

Another well-known secret comes in the form of Calum Ritchie. Acquired as the centerpiece of the Brock Nelson trade, it’s widely expected he will make the Islanders’ opening night roster next year. With Ritchie, a center, entering the fold, it becomes incredibly likely that Jean-Gabriel Pageau is moved.

Then again, he’s been playing quite well as a second-line center. Is it possible for the Islanders to keep Pageau despite his expiring contract next year? Yes, it is. Instead of the common thought, which is the Islanders returning Mathew Barzal to his natural center position, perhaps the Islanders will keep Barzal on Horvat’s wing. Then, they’ll have this down the middle next year: Horvat, Pageau, Ritchie, MacLean. That would squeeze out Casey Cizikas, who would become a prime candidate to be moved.

Once again, the winning does not change much. One of the veteran centers, Pageau or Cizikas, must be moved. There’s simply not enough room for them, no matter how the Islanders try and make it work.

The Pierre Engvall Question:

Perhaps the single loudest question of all right now throughout Islanders land. What is the future of Pierre Engvall?

Emgvall, 28, is in the second year of the mammoth seven-year extension signed on July 1, 2023. Ten days ago, the consensus had been he will be bought out after the season. That would incur a $1 million cap hit for the next decade. Then, the best version of Engvall arrived this past week.

Starting against the Oilers, Engvall has recorded 3+ shots in a game for the second time in his career. He scored the game-winning goal in Pittsburgh last night and played a big role in the comeback against the Panthers.

When he plays like he has, he’s well worth $3 million. However, the story of his career is this inconsistency. There’s a reason he was cut from the opening night roster and then waived again after that. It’s quite possible had the Islanders not suffered so many injuries this year, he may not have made it back to the NHL.

If his good stretch lasts the next 15 games and into a potential playoff series, the conversation becomes serious. For now, it remains that the Islanders have to move on. They cannot afford another season with 20 healthy scratches and inconsistent effort from Engvall. The money is better spent elsewhere.

But Engvall, and Engvall alone, can change that narrative.

Conclusion:

In short, winning should not change the overarching plan this summer. The team still is frustratingly inconsistent and far from a Stanley Cup Contender. Just sneaking into the playoffs for a third straight year will not be good enough.

Even so, it’ll be a fun ride down the stretch. My free advice? Enjoy it either way. Buckle up.