Forecasting Contract Extensions for the RFAs; Romanov Odd Man Out?

The 2025 NHL Draft Combine came and went. With it, the New York Islanders’ deepest intentions appeared fully visible to the public. The Islanders’ plan seems to be to select Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick.

Schaefer is a slam-dunk, can’t-miss prospect who can skate as well as anyone in the NHL and has all the offensive and defensive tools to be a top defenseman in the league.

After that, their second priority became due diligence. The Islanders spoke to over 60 prospects at the combine and took Michael Misa and James Hagens to dinner. In turn, Misa’s roommate went on the record to state that Misa wants to be drafted by the San Jose Sharks. Meanwhile, Hagens made it clear how desperately he wants to be an Islander.

The Islanders themselves would love to have Hagens. The issue solely becomes an inability to land both him and Schaefer. What could help the Islanders is if Hagens slips outside the top three, and they convince either Utah or Nashville of a trade for their first-rounders. It’s known that Philadelphia and Boston don’t have any intentions of moving down, as of now.

With all this in mind, along with pending RFAs and decisions needing to be made, I’ve decided to break out the crystal ball and forecast exactly what the Islanders will do with these RFAs, and why the draft is directly tied to decisions that will be made.

First, the RFAs:

Noah Dobson will re-sign with the Islanders. For how long and how much, that’s still being determined. I can’t see a deal less than five years, but based on how Islanders GM Mathieu Darche spoke to the NY Post about how much he values Dobson, anything short of a big extension would be a total stunner.

AFP Analytics projects an eight-year deal for Dobson, with a cap hit of over $10 million each season. The Islanders may not be comfortable with that, and could instead opt for a five or six-year deal, which would have a slightly lower hit of anywhere from $8 to $9 million.

As for Simon Holmstrom and Maxim Tsyplakov, both will receive shorter-term extensions. Holmstrom would be a great candidate for the Islanders to go long-term on, but in all likelihood, Holmstrom wouldn’t want to lock himself in for too long and cost himself millions if he continues to blossom.

For Tsyplakov, another one or two-year deal would suffice. AFP Analytics projects Holmstrom at a two-year deal with a cap hit of $3.762 million per season. As for Tsyplakov, they’re more bullish on his deal, giving him three years at a shade over $4.5 million annually.

The Alexander Romanov Conundrum:

Perhaps the quietest big decision on Darche’s plate this summer is what to do with Alexander Romanov.

The Islanders acquired Romanov, 25, at the 2022 NHL Draft for the 13th overall pick. In the three years since, Romanov blossomed into a top-four defenseman but struggled at times this season when placed into a top-pair spot.

Romanov talked at length in his exit interview about how much he loves the Islanders and wants to stay with the franchise. AFP Analytics projects the pending RFA’s deal to be just a one-year, $4.48 million extension. Anything longer than three years, and Romanov could want much more annually, something the Islanders may not be comfortable with.

Darche and the Islanders will be taking Schaefer in two weeks and four days. Schaefer’s already confirmed to be working out and skating with Adam Pelech (a former Erie Otter, like Schaefer) this summer. Pelech’s role as a mentor for Schaefer and Isaiah George is key, and solidifies his place in this roster.

If Schaefer is NHL-ready, as some expect, and so is George, there’s not enough room for Romanov.

It would not be a shock to see the Islanders potentially package Romanov and other assets in an attempt to trade up for James Hagens or acquire a bona fide goalscorer like Jason Robertson.

However, based on everything Darche said thus far, he expects a quiet summer. He believes the Islanders are a playoff team as is, plus adding in Calum Ritchie and potentially Schaefer will only add to that. Darche may opt for a small, quiet summer as he builds out the Islanders’ front office and completely overhauls Bridgeport.