Report: Islanders “Testing the Market” on Dobson

The New York Islanders and rookie General Manager Mathieu Darche publicly praised Noah Dobson and called him a core player.

The only issue would be a new contract for the star RFA defenseman. Publicly, word had been very quiet on Dobson. So, I spoke with people, and everyone I had spoken to up until this week seemed confident that something would get done, and a trade didn’t seem likely.

Then, his contract number leaked yesterday. Dobson’s camp dug in and began with an ask of $11 million per season on a long-term extension. That number is very high, one that caused panic with the Islanders’ fan base. After Dobson’s shaky season, it seems hard to picture that high of a number.

I wrote yesterday, that’s how negotiations go. Frank Seravalli said there hadn’t been any trade talk currently. Still, when a contract number like that leaks, it’s always for a reason. Whether it’s the player agent trying to gain leverage, or it’s the team trying to control a narrative. Someone says one thing, and it goes from there.

Enter Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts: The Podcast this morning.

With one sentence, Friedman dramatically changes the outlook for the next seven days leading up to the draft:

“I have heard quietly that the Islanders are testing the market on him. I know there have been a lot of Romanov rumors, but I’ve had a few people tell me that Dobson is the guy to really keep an eye on.”

How Did The Islanders Get Here?

The Islanders steadily brought along Dobson since drafting him 12th overall in the 2018 NHL Draft. Each season, his production increased as he blossomed. Two seasons of 50-point pace hockey in 2021-22 and 2022-23 seemed to lend belief that, if nothing else, he could be an excellent top-four defenseman.

Then, in 2023-24, Dobson exploded. He put up 70 points from the backend, the most for an Islander since Denis Potvin. Still, he tapered off toward the end of that season due to an injury, and the Islanders crashed out of the playoffs in round one.

Despite his great season, Islanders’ then-GM, Lou Lamoriello, did not want to extend Dobson based on that one season, opting for patience. Dobson then struggled immensely, posting his worst point production since 2020-21, when he was still just getting his feet wet in the NHL.

Still, the Islanders out-possessed opponents regularly when Dobson was on the ice, but he could not get going offensively, while defensively, the puck landed in his own net too often when he was on the ice.

All of this has given the Islanders a clear pause. Dobson changed his agent midseason, a clear sign he was gearing up for a big contract negotiation.

Now, the Islanders and Dobson may be at an impasse. Said Friedman, “[The Islanders] know he’s going to be an eight-figure guy, so the Islanders have to decide, ‘Are we going to pay that or is someone else going to pay that?'”

What the Islanders Would Want for Dobson:

Friedman made it clear, nothing’s set in stone. He laid out three options the Islanders have: Sign him long-term now, and if it doesn’t work, trade him later. If it works, you’ve got him on a great contract with the exploding cap.

The other options include going to arbitration, a contentious thing that seldom goes well. Last time the Islanders had an RFA defenseman opt for arbitration, they traded him to the Colorado Avalanche for two second-round picks.

That brings us to the final option, the one Friedman said the Islanders are investigating right now: trading him.

“I think that they intend to compete for the playoffs next year, and if you’re subtracting Dobson from your team, it better be for a return that people look at and say ‘Whoa. That makes sense.’ So that’s what I think they’re doing, I think they’re trying to find out what’s out there.”

If the Islanders trade Dobson, it had better be a massive package. Frank Seravalli linked the Islanders to JJ Peterka yesterday. If Buffalo is the fit, then the 9th overall pick would likely be a part of a massive package from Buffalo.

Boston’s been linked to the Islanders for other players, but it stands to reason they’d be interested in Dobson. Their entire roster has been raided, and Morgan Geekie shot an incredibly unsustainable 22%, so he’s someone to avoid. Just the 7th overall pick for Dobson would be a massive let-down, and would make the Islanders significantly worse next season, even if they land James Hagens.

Which brings us back to an article I wrote weeks ago. If the money can work for Dallas, a Jason Robertson for Noah Dobson swap would be the perfect outcome. That’s the level of player the Islanders need to acquire if they move off of Dobson.

Romanov Rumors:

Friedman also discussed Alexander Romanov, another name that’s been out there in trade rumors all week.

“Teams have asked them about Romanov. I also think that the price is very high. Romanov is not going to be in a salary structure that you’re afraid of.”

If Romanov is dealt, it continues to be solely about getting squeezed out of a top-four role by Adam Pelech and eventually, Matthew Schaefer. Committing long-term money to Romanov does not make sense if the future does not see him in the top-four, especially with Isaiah George also on the way.

Takeaways:

Clearly, Darche and the Islanders have a lot of irons in the fire. Between both Dobson and Romanov potentially being available, it’s evident, despite any public promises to the contrary, Darche is shaking up the core.

The Islanders team, as it is right now, will not be the same by the time the first round of the NHL Draft is over. There is just too much smoke billowing out to assume there’s no fire.

Whether it’s a Dobson or Romanov blockbuster, both, or something nobody’s seen yet, something will be coming. For once in Elmont, change is finally imminent.