Noah Dobson and the Right Side Trickle Down

It’s a big day for the New York Islanders. At 11 a.m., Mathieu Darche will be introduced to the media and fans, and you can watch it live on the Islanders’ website.

While that excitement continues to build throughout the morning, it’s worth revisiting a topic we discussed two days ago: the defense. Two days ago, we looked at the left side and how significantly it could change, thanks to contracts and the first overall pick.

Let’s flip that and look at the right side, which could have an equal amount of change. Noah Dobson’s an RFA, as is Adam Boqvist. Tony DeAngelo and Grant Hutton will hit the UFA market on July 1. Meanwhile, Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield are potential cap casualties.

Everything starts with Dobson.

Dobson’s Contract:

As for the right side, the Islanders have decisions there as well. Dobson’s due for a big raise. He had a 70-point season in 2023-24, then battled an injury to end that year before struggling offensively this season. Though divisive, it’s worth noting he has the best analytics on the team, and whoever is paired with him sees their stats increase. Earlier this spring, we looked at how elite Pelech and Dobson were on the ice.

Ultimately, paying Dobson will be costly. How much is too much? That answer varies broadly. AFP Analytics projects him at an eight-year, $80 million contract. That’d be $10 million annually, eclipsing Mathew Barzal for the highest-paid player in blue and orange.

The Islanders could bridge Dobson at a lesser money total, but that would walk him right to free agency, and potentially cost them even more down the line. Any way you shake it, it’s a tough call, but ultimately, all the evidence points to this year being a down year. He underproduced to expectations not just from fans and the team, but from the pure analytics.

Almost everything that could go wrong for Dobson did. The power play, without Barzal, struggled heavily. Dobson did not have any partner consistency to build a rhythm. He then suffered an injury of his own, missing 11 games.

Dobson scored 10 goals and 39 points over his 71 games, far below expectations. It could very easily make Darche and the Islanders hesitant to lock him up. Then again, the last time the Islanders had any defenseman produce 10+ goals in consecutive seasons and a 70-point season to boot, he wore #5 and landed in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

While it’s definitely possible the team opts to let him go in a trade, it’s extremely unlikely at this point. Dobson’s a piece Darche will want to build around, thanks to his elite potential.

Will Pulock and/or Mayfield Return?

The next biggest question comes with the veterans. Scott Mayfield has five more years on his contract worth $3.5 million annually. He holds a full no-trade clause, and in his postseason availability when asked about his future, pointed right at his contract.

After Head Coach Patrick Roy made him a healthy scratch during parts of the stretch run, something that could signal a fresh start may be best. Whether through trade or a potential decade-long buyout, Mayfield’s an option to go.

The flip side is, he actually had a strong season when he played. There’s no question his 2023-24 season didn’t go well. Then again, he fractured his ankle in game #1 that year and played through it for 40 more like a warrior. This year, health was better for the most part; he still missed some time, but missed more games as a healthy scratch than he did from injury.

With his cheap cap hit and strong results on the bottom pairing, there’s an argument to keep him. However, he’s very likely only getting to stay if Ryan Pulock is moved.

Pulock, also signed through 2030, has a $6.15 million cap hit. This season was not ideal for Pulock. Whether it’s a poor scheme fit with Roy’s run-and-gun style or age, Pulock had his worst stretches in blue and orange this year.

He also battled through injuries, particularly a nasty upper-body injury that plagued him from January through the rest of the season. With his larger cap hit, a buyout’s a non-option. He would need to agree to a trade away from New York, something he may or may not be open to.

Aside from Dobson, shedding one of Mayfield or Pulock’s contracts is the biggest task on Darche’s plate at the moment. He will need the extra money to help retool the roster.

Will Darche Re-Sign Boqvist, DeAngelo, Hutton?

Finally, that brings us to the final pieces of the puzzle- the depth. Let’s start with the RFA, Adam Boqvist. For Darche, it’s likely a slam dunk to bring back the young defender. He reportedly had a deal in place with Lou Lamoriello, but that was then, and this is now.

Boqvist, a former eighth overall pick, showed some great offensive flashes with the Islanders, even playing forward on multiple occasions when he needed to. He could be a perfect third-pairing player for Roy’s system while quarterbacking a power play unit, something he outproduced DeAngelo in last season in fewer minutes. The cost of a deal would presumably be cheap, even on a two or three-year deal.

As for DeAngelo, unless both Pulock and Mayfield go, if the Islanders keep Dobson and Boqvist, the veteran likely gets (almost unfairly) squeezed out. He had some great flashes, but his defensive play once again really hurts his case to stay.

Like Mike Reilly, if he’s willing to stay on a minimum deal, and as a potential seventh defenseman, it could make sense to keep him for depth. But if there’s a future for Boqvist, he and DeAngelo play similar roles. The Islanders need to choose the youth in this

Lastly, that brings us to Grant Hutton. Hutton wore a letter for the Bridgeport Islanders, but missed the final two months due to a recurring upper-body injury. He also missed almost the entire first two months with Bridgeport, thanks to his call-up with the NY Islanders.

When Hutton played for Bridgeport, the team had a better record with him in the lineup than without. With his veteran leadership and ability to fill a role with the big club in a pinch, it should be a no-brainer to keep Hutton in the organization.