How & Why Dobson Forced the Islanders’ Hand & What Comes Next

The trade sending Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens may not be fully official, but it’s done. The Islanders acquired Emil Heineman and the 16th and 17th overall picks in tonight’s NHL Draft.

The Islanders had no choice but to do this. Noah Dobson backed them into a corner by refusing to move off his contract ask, then forcing his way to Montreal. After some reporting revealed interest from the St. Louis Blues, Dobson’s camp made it clear he wouldn’t sign anywhere in the Western Conference.

This all comes after Dobson fired his agent during the season as he struggled to put up half the production he did the year prior, gearing up for a major contract negotiation.

That left two suitors, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Montreal Canadiens. The Islanders did not want to trade Dobson in the division, while Dobson always preferred the Canadiens anyway.

To be clear, there is nothing Islanders’ General Manager Mathieu Darche could have done here. Dobson’s actions made it clear he did not want to stay on Long Island. He dug in, things leaked (you can guess from which camp), and took away all the Islanders’ leverage.

(SIDE NOTE: Dobson was always good in the room and made time to speak. I wish him the best.)

Darche still managed to land two first-round picks and a decent forward in Emil Heineman. Heineman’s ceiling is a shutdown third-liner who can contribute 10–20 goals in a given year. He popped in 10 goals and 18 points across 62 games. He’s been traded twice before.

When you have absolutely zero leverage, it’s hard to even get a decent package. Two first-round picks and a useful, young NHL player are decent.

Hagens Time?

Everyone in the NHL knows what Darche wants to do next. He will look to package both the 16th and 17th overall selections into a top-10 pick to land James Hagens.

As Frank Seravalli reported on X, that’s only going to work against the Islanders. The Islanders may need to add even more to the deal. It’s possible, after adding Heineman, one of the many wingers on this team could be used in a deal to sweeten the pot.

With the weakness of this draft class outside the top prospects, it makes little sense for the Islanders to hang onto picks 16 and 17. If they can land a deal to select Hagens, it’s going to be worth it if the package is just the 16th and 17th picks. If the Islanders get squeezed, that’s where this could get interesting.

Beyond That, Roster Implications:

If the Islanders intend to compete in 2025-26, then they have a gaping hole on the right side of their defense. Yes, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Adam Boqvist are under contract, but that may not be enough. They could re-sign Tony DeAngelo, but that’s nothing more than a stop-gap.

With added cap space from not having to sign Dobson, the Islanders could pursue Nikolaj Ehlers on July 1. New York has a long-standing interest in the winger. They could also take a run at two-time Stanley Cup winner Aaron Ekblad, assuming he hits the market. He would fill Dobson’s void.

It doesn’t seem like the Islanders are done making deals today. Much more to come.