Forecasting Simon Holmstrom’s Next Contract

One of the season’s biggest stories for the New York Islanders is Simon Holmstrom’s emergence. Each season with the Islanders, the 2019 first-round pick has steadily improved. Now in his third season with the club, he’s starting to bloom. After a slow start where he called his own play “unacceptable,” Holmstrom has racked up 12 goals and 22 points in 29 games since November 20th.

His pace of .75 points per game places him second on the team in that span, trailing only Anders Lee. In actual points, he sits fourth despite missing seven games due to injury. His strong two-way play makes him a valuable penalty killer where he’s excelled, along with a new option on the power play.

This past summer, Holmstrom signed just a one-year deal. PuckPedia reported he took the $850k on a one-year, one-way deal instead of his QO of $874k due to it being a two-way deal.

Let’s evaluate what Holmstrom may get on his extension this time around.

Holmstrom’s Value to the Team:

Holmstrom’s value to the Islanders is obvious. Between his defensive work and newfound offensive threat, Holmstrom becomes a nightmare player to go up against. All this doesn’t mention how high his hockey IQ is, often finding himself in the right place. It’s something that immediately stuck out to Head Coach Patrick Roy and why he earned his coach’s trust immediately.

Add in the fact that Holmstrom is just 23 years old and rapidly improving, and it’s clear why the Islanders want him here for the long haul. However, with an exploding salary cap and the Islanders’ unknown direction regarding veterans like Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, it may make more sense to sign a bridge deal at a lower hit with Holmstrom.

A Bridge is the Lamoriello Way:

Throughout Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello’s tenure, he’s often given bridge deals to his young RFAs as they continue to figure out their way in the NHL. He signed players like Anthony Beauvillier and Noah Dobson to short-term bridge deals instead of committing long-term to young players.

There’s little reason to think he’d change his approach with Holmstrom. For Holmstrom’s side, it makes a ton of sense just to sign a bridge and bet on yourself to continue to improve. Then, with the newfound cap explosion, he can really cash in on a long-term deal.

Projection: 2x$3-$3.5:

The final projection for Holmstrom comes with help from AFP Analytics’ midseason forecast, which lists their prediction for Holmstrom at 2x$3 million per year. That makes a lot of sense, as it gives Holmstrom a notable raise while not blowing through the cap space added this summer. Holmstrom would remain a restricted free agent upon expiry at just a two year term.

However, if Holmstrom continues to put up points and finishes above the 45-point threshold, he might command a bit more than just $3 million per year. Either way, a bridge deal seems to be the best route forward for Holmstrom for now.