What Will a Brock Nelson Trade Look Like? Four Predictions

It’s officially the eve of the NHL Trade Deadline. Despite how close the deadline is, the New York Islanders camp is in virtual radio silence regarding Brock Nelson’s status.

This is exactly how team president and general manager Lou Lamoriello likes it. Nobody knows what’s going on, keeping everyone guessing. The latest reports from an insider, Pierre LeBrun, indicated that a trade has become the most likely option despite attempts to re-sign him.

So, with 24 hours and change until that 3 p.m. deadline, it’s become very clear how big of a seller’s market it is. Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand fetched two 1sts, a 2nd, and a roster player. Nelson alone will be able to fetch something comparable to that. Yesterday, we looked at what a New Jersey Devils trade package could look like.

Here are four new packages from four different teams:

Trade #1: Islanders trade Brock Nelson (50% Retained) to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for WPG’s 2025 1st-round pick, F Brad Lambert, and WPG’s Conditional 2026 2nd-round pick

This is the big one. Despite all the bluster, I believe the Islanders will trade Nelson. At this point, there has been no extension, nor has there seemingly been any progress on one either. That means the Islanders, currently 13th in the Eastern Conference and three points out of a playoff spot, will be forced into trading Nelson.

It’s been widely reported that the Winnipeg Jets hold a very serious interest in Nelson and would be one of, if not the first, in line to acquire Nelson.

The cost of acquisition is high. First, the condition on the 2026 2nd is that if the Winnipeg Jets win the Stanley Cup, the pick becomes a 2026 1st. So, already, it could be two pure first-rounders to the Islanders in exchange for Nelson. Then, the Islanders would add Winnipeg’s top-ranked prospect, Brad Lambert.

Winnipeg selected Lambert, 21, 30th overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. He’s been described as an extremely talented winger with great skating and high-level skill. Last season, he recorded 21 goals and 55 points in the AHL in 64 games. This year, on the second-worst team in the AHL, the numbers have dipped to four goals and 26 points in 44 games. He’s still consistently been one of the Manitoba Moose’s biggest threats. He’s just caught on a bad team.

Landing Lambert could even potentially play in the NHL if acquired, but he’s been left off the elite Jets roster. He’s played in five NHL games this year, recording just one assist.

Another prospect Winnipeg could include in a deal is Colby Barlow, Winnipeg’s 2023 first-round pick.

Trade #2: Islanders Trade Brock Nelson (50% Retained) to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for F Casey Mittelstadt, COL’s 2026 1st-round pick, COL’s 2025 2nd-round pick, COL’s 2026 4th

Another team extremely interested in acquiring Nelson is the Colorado Avalanche. Colorado acquired Casey Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres at the last deadline in exchange for Bowen Byram, but that deal has not worked out. Mittelstadt, 26, has 11 goals and 34 points in 62 games with the Avalanche.

He has two years remaining on his contract at a $5.75 million cap hit, one that the Avalanche desperately now want to move. Mittelstadt has talent and recorded 57 and 59 points in the last two seasons, along with 15 and 18 goals during those seasons. However, with his performance this year and his contract, he’s as attractive of a piece.

Despite the negatives, he fits the Islanders as he can plug right into Nelson’s 2c spot, where they hope he can recapture his near-60-point form and even build on it. The Islanders could opt for more futures and ask for Calum Ritchie, but that doesn’t feel likely.

The draft picks are a must in any Nelson trade at this point. No conditions on these ones, as Colorado happily forks over some picks for the best trade chip available. Well, other than Mikko Rantanen.

Trade #3: (Three Team Trade): Islanders Trade Brock Nelson (50% Retained) to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for F Danila Yurov, MIN’s 2026 1st, MIN’s 2025 2nd, COND. MIN 2026 3rd, F Jakub Lauko; (3rd Team: MIN Trades SEA 2026 5th & 6th to pay 25% of Brock Nelson’s Contract)

You want nuts? Let’s get nuts. This is the other complex version of a Nelson trade that I’ll cover here. Unless you’ve lived under a rock, everyone knows how interested the Minnesota Wild and their GM, Bill Guerin, are in Brock Nelson. Guerin even named Nelson to Team USA for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Nelson, a native Minnesotan, remarked that Winnipeg is closer to his hometown of Warroad, MN than Minneapolis, where the Wild play. John Buccigross remarked on an ESPN broadcast that the worst-kept secret in the NHL is that Nelson would sign with the Wild on July 1.

Instead, Guerin jumps the gun. He has to get creative, as his team has virtually no cap space available. In this case, he’s able to whittle Nelson’s cap hit down to $1.5 million through Seattle, but if he wanted to get it even lower to $750k, he could add a fourth team as a retainer.

However, he sends the Islanders’ young forward Jakub Lauko to take some cap hit off his books. Lauko, 24, has played 38 games for the Wild this season, registering three goals and six points while playing a strong bottom-six role. That appeals enough to the Islanders as added depth and a player who can play both center and the wing.

The biggest prize in all this is Danila Yurov. Yurov is Minnesota’s top prospect outside of Zeev Buium, who is untouchable. Yurov, 21, has been described as an elite prospect with a minimum of top-six potential. This year in the KHL as a 21-year-old, Yurov has 13 goals and 25 points over 46 games. Last season, he scored 21 goals and 49 points in 62 games. He is the real deal and would join Cole Eiserman at the top of the Islanders’ prospect board.

The condition on the 2026 3rd is simple. If Nelson re-signs in Minnesota, the pick transfers over. If he doesn’t, that pick drops out of the deal.

Trade #4: Islanders Trade Brock Nelson (50% Retained) and D Scott Mayfield to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for F Easton Cowan, F Nicholas Roberston, D Conor Timmins, F Max Domi, TOR’s 2026 1st-round pick, TOR’s 2025 2nd-round pick (FLA), TOR 2025 3rd-round pick (EDM), COND. TOR 2026 3rd-round pick

Alright, now this one would truly take the cake for maximum chaos. This is a behemoth of a deal, and realistically, with so many moving parts, one that is not too likely. First, it’s been well-reported that the Maple Leafs not only want Nelson from the Islanders but also the big-bodied Scott Mayfield. Mayfield has five more years at $3.5 per year, but his contract is less of a hindrance with the rising cap. Mayfield holds a full-NTC, but after heathy scratches and a chance to win the Stanley Cup with Toronto, it’s expected he would waive.

With options for upgrades scarce and having watched the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning make big splashes, the Leafs pony up for Nelson and Mayfield.

The money can work out, thanks to the Islanders taking on Max Domi’s remaining four years at $3.75 for the middle-six player who can immediately help fill the Nelson hole. Domi does hold a 13-team NTC, so that could throw a wrench in this if the Islanders are on that list.

The Islanders pick up the Leafs’ top prospect elsewhere in Easton Cowan. Cowan, a 2023 first-round pick, won the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player award and OHL Playoffs MVP last season, registering 138 points in 76 combined games in the regular season, playoffs, and Memorial Cup. He could be NHL-ready as soon as next season and is projected to be a top-nine forward with a high upside.

The Islanders also grab the wantaway Nicholas Robertson, who will be an RFA at the end of the season and seemingly does not want to remain in Toronto. Finally, the Islanders add the mobile Conor Timmins, who would become the odd man out with Mayfield entering. The condition on the 2026 3rd is the same as in Minnesota. If Nelson re-ups, the pick transfers. If he doesn’t, that pick stays in Toronto.