The World Waits on Brock Nelson Decision: Breaking it All Down

The New York Islanders officially began their break during the Four Nations Face-Off. There won’t be any formal team activities for over a week, and the only ongoing hockey will be the Four Nation’s games, the PWHL, and the AHL.

With that break comes an expected pause in trade-related activities, as most teams don’t want to disturb their players with trades during probable vacations.

Brock Nelson Dominates Hockey Talk:

However, the entire hockey world seemed to be talking all about the Islanders and their decision with Brock Nelson. Nelson topped multiple trade boards over the weekend, including at The Athletic, run by Chris Johnston.

As is well documented by now, Nelson is a pending unrestricted free agent. He’s 33, but he’s a proven goalscorer and a proven playoff player. Teams would line up to bid for his services and offer up large hauls that the Islanders can use to restock the prospect cupboard and/or use for future trades to retool the lineup now.

This weekend, reports started to leak that the Islanders had begun discussing a contract extension with Nelson in hopes he would re-sign and remain a New York Islander. On Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday, Elliotte Friedman confirmed those reports and doubled down on it today in his 32 Thoughts: The Podcast show.

So far, that has not happened. Also, in The Athletic, Arthur Staple released his latest on what he knows and thinks about the Islanders’ plans.

Staple wrote: “Nelson is ready to commit to a deal that would likely make him an Islander for life… Nelson may be intrigued by what else could be out there, like a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup this season and the chance to play closer to home beyond that. While it may not truly be the worst-kept secret in hockey that Nelson and the Wild would have mutual interest, it’s an obvious fit.”

With those words, it sure seems likely that Nelson is heading out of town. Without a commitment to stay, Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello will have no choice but to deal out Brock Nelson to one of the many teams interested in him.

Who Could be Interested?

In short, every single contender. Nelson is the type of player every single contender would love to have. However, certain teams stick out the most.

On the latest The Chris Johnston Show on SDPN, Johnston echoed the sentiments about Nelson and the Islanders discussing an extension before clarifying why Nelson is the number one player on his trade board.

“Every buyer that’s out there looking for a top-six player, he’s the target. Teams are sort of lining up, waiting for the doors to open to see if they can get in on the auction. But the auctioneer is Lou Lamoriello… How I’ll put it is this: Until the Islanders tell teams he’s not available, he’s got to be #1. Unless someone like Brayden Schenn and Brad Marchand truly becomes available, they’d take the #1 spot.”

The hockey world is waiting for a decision. The teams may not be specifically named, but NYI Hockey Now can confirm teams very interested in Nelson include the Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Most likely, a team in the Central Division would acquire Nelson, but that’s only if the situation extends that far. Staple does not think Nelson is likely. However, Staple added this part: “That could certainly change, especially if Lamoriello offers the sort of term and trade protection that will make Nelson secure.”

If Nelson holds out for extra term, it’s risky for the Islanders. He’s already 34, and his scoring is down this year. The second line with him and Kyle Palmieri shined early in the year, but both have gone 15 games without a goal this season.

When Will This All Be Done?

Nobody but Lamoriello and Nelson knows that answer. For all we know, Lamoriello could’ve already tabled the best offer he could to Nelson without a clear response. Nelson will be playing for Team USA during the Four Nations, so his focus won’t even be solely on the Islaners and making that decision.

If Lamoriello is talking about an extension with Nelson, one can assume he is with Palmieri as well. Palmieri sure seems like a perfect trade candidate. The Islanders already have an in-house replacement for him in the emerging Simon Holmstrom. But Palmieri’s situation is on hold until Nelson’s is decided.

With Nelson, this could truly come down to the wire. Staple thinks Lamoriello could wait until the week of the deadline to make Nelson available, but that feels like a mistake. By then, teams will have already made some moves. The Islanders would be stuck with a bad return.  Just think back to what happened to Garth Snow when he waited too long to make Thomas Vanek available at the deadline 11 years ago.

This decision must be made by the time the puck drops in UBS Arena on February 23. For once, the Islanders need a clear direction for their plans for this deadline and the years ahead.

That all starts with Brock Nelson and what he and the team decide to do.