One Week Til the Deadline: Where Things Stand with the Islanders

The New York Islanders defeated the Boston Bruins 2-1 last night. On the surface, the win snapped a four-game losing streak and was a feel-good win for the team. However, widening the scope, that win took the Islanders from 14th in the East and seven points outside of a playoff spot to… 14th in the East and seven points outside of a playoff spot.

That’s the harsh reality of where the Islanders find themselves today—circling the drain but swimming sideways, hoping to escape it. The Islanders have played 58 games. They’ve won 26 of them, losing 32 others. It’s the third-fewest in the East. Make no mistake about it—last night should not change any perception of where the Islanders should be heading.

Brock Nelson Updates:

Then, just moments before the puck dropped in Boston, Pierre LeBrun appeared on TSN’s Insider Trading, TSN and reported that the New York Islanders have not made Brock Nelson available for trade as of today. Said LeBrun: “He’s [Nelson] kind of holding up a lot of things. There’s so many teams looking for center help. But there’s still no clear indication from the New York Islanders that Brock Nelson will actually be made available.”

Furthermore, LeBrun reports that he spoke with the Islanders’ team president and general manager, Lou Lamoriello, about Nelson’s status today.  LeBrun further that by sharing a quote he received from the Islanders’ GM when speaking with Lamoriello this morning: “He [Brock] is an Islander. He’s certainly an integral part of our team.”

Then, late at night and again this morning, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet released his 32 Thoughts column and then his podcast. On both, he insisted no decision had been made. In his podcast, he offered this exchange with his cohost Kyle Bukauskas:

Elliotte- “Islanders won [Last night]. Lamoriello’s history is only adding pieces when he thinks they can win.”

Kyle- “Seven points out.”

Elliote- “Seven points out. Again, it’s so difficult to predict with him, and I would never even try to, but that’s why I think teams are waiting, too. They think that Nelson’s going to be available, but it’s on Lamoriello’s terms.”

What That All Means:

It sure sounds like 31 other teams are looking at the Islanders and wondering why they’re not just selling. In case you haven’t noticed, since the Vancouver Canucks made their pair of big trades before 4 Nations, there’s been zero NHL-level trades.

When that happens, it’s a good indication teams are waiting to see what happens with a certain player or players. On Friedman’s podcast, he even confirmed this. “Teams are waiting on [Mikko] Rantanen. Teams are waiting on Brock Nelson.”

If Nelson, currently on pace for his lowest goal and point totals in four years, is the belle of the ball, it becomes a dereliction of duty not to flip him for assets. The Islanders desperately need a shake-up. The team has plenty of pieces that can help them win- Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Ilya Sorokin- and emerging secondary pieces like Simon Holmstrom help, too.

Keeping Nelson, 33, would block any big summer moves for players who are widely expected to hit the open market, like Mitch Marner and Nikolaj Ehlers. Keeping Nelson cements the Islanders’ contentment with this wild card goose chase every season.

For consecutive summers, the Islanders took big swings at premium forwards. They went hard for Alex DeBrincat in 2023 but did not have the assets, so he went to Detroit. Last year, they tried for Ehlers but again did not have the assets.

Trading Nelson creates cap space and loads up the Islanders’ trade arsenal. Keeping him cements the continuation of the same core without any substantive change.

Where Does This Leave Kyle Palmieri?

The ongoing Brock Nelson saga has sucked the air out of any other decisions that need to be made. Kyle Palmieri, another pending UFA, has drawn notable interest.

Arthur Staple of The Athletic previously reported Palmieri could easily return a second-round pick and more. There’s been radio silence on the Palmieri front without any clarity on Nelson. That adds to the problem- in reality, the Islanders should also be flipping Palmieri.

Palmieri, 34, has been a great player for the Islanders. Acquired at the 2021 deadline alongside Travis Zajac, Palmieri helped the Islanders go all the way to game seven with the eventual champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Conference Finals.

With Holmstrom’s emergence and Maxim Tsyplakov’s abilities fitting much better in the top six, it’s time also to turn the page with Palmieri.

Anders Lee on the Move?

Then, yesterday afternoon, Newsday’s Andrew Gross released a very intriguing report. Anders Lee, with only one more year on his contract, is highly coveted league-wide:

“There’s a strong belief Anders Lee is drawing plenty of league-wide interest. However, that is very different than saying Lamoriello is open to moving his captain or has given inquiring callers any indication that would be a possibility.”

That would be one crazy move. Lee, the captain of the Islanders since John Tavares walked away, is the group’s unquestioned leader. His leadership on and off the ice galvanized the group to two deep playoff runs, with the caveat being in 2021 he missed the entire run with a torn ACL.

Lee’s recovery from the knee injury took a bit. Last season, in decreasing minutes, he scored just 20 goals. This year, he’s up to 23 and is on pace for the most goals he’s scored in a season since his 40-goal campaign back in 2017-18.

Again, with such a focus on Nelson, it’s unlikely that Lamoriello has any ideas about moving Lee, who holds a 15-team NTC. It seems incredibly unlikely that Lee will be moved, but the fact that teams are interested means the phone should at least be picked up and not ignored.

Ditto that for Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He also has just one more year on his deal. He has a 16-team NTC but draws league-wide interest for his face-off abilities and two-way abilities. Throw in his exceptional playoff experience with both the Islanders and Ottawa Senators. You’ve got a guy who, if the Islanders retain money, can easily net a first-round pick in return.

It’s unlikely Pageau commands such a return in the summer or next deadline. This would be his peak value, so not entertaining potential change is a mistake. My sense is Pageau’s fate is tied directly to Nelson’s. If Nelson ends up signing an extension, I’d think it greatly increases the chances Pageau is moved now or in the summer.