Barzal Out Indefinitely: How This Affects the Islanders’ Trade Deadline Plans

After successfully splitting the weekend trip in Florida, the New York Islanders dropped the other shoe. On Monday afternoon, the team announced that Mathew Barzal is out “indefinitely” with a lower-body injury. The news severely undercuts many of the good vibes gathered during the seven-game win streak that has now ended.

Without Barzal, the already-struggling Islanders’ power play only gets worse. Last night in Sunrise against the Panthers, the team went 1/3, and the goal came with Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s line scoring in the final seconds. With the traditional units, New York struggled to set up and looked hopeless with zone entries, an area where Barzal excels.

The team also announced that Scott Mayfield is day-to-day with a lower-body injury of his own, but that feels like very good news. At worst, Mayfield will miss the next three games and be ready to go after the Four-Nation’s Face-Off.

This morning, the Islanders sit four points out of the final wild-card berth and have a game in hand on the Columbus Blue Jackets, the team currently holding the spot.

Immediate Implications if This Week Goes Poorly:

Last night, the Islanders did as expected and simply inserted Anthony Duclair for Barzal on the top line. The line looked a bit jumbled, but so did the entire team. They had an awful first period, a solid second period with an atrocious finish, and then Florida just shut it down in the third period.

It’s expected Barzal will be placed on long-term injured reserve, and his entire $9.15 cap hit will clear the books. Once that happens, the Islanders will have a lot of money to play with. The next three games will decide which direction they go with that money.

It will be time to sell if the team loses all three to the Vegas Golden Knights, Minnesota Wild, and Winnipeg Jets. It might be time, anyway. As great as the win streak is, it doesn’t change the fact that all the talk is Brock Nelson will not re-sign with the Islanders.

Nelson will bring in a massive haul of futures and/or presents, something the Islanders desperately need for a small retool that avoids being in the mushy middle again next season.

Losses in regulation to all three take the Islanders right back to the NHL .500. In that scenario, you can trade Kyle Palmieri to a contender. Would Anthony DeAngelo interest a team desperate for defensive help? Would the team entertain offers for Jean-Gabriel Pageau, another center for which teams would trip over themselves?

That’s what the rest of this week decides.

What Happens if They Win?

If the Islanders win at least two of the three matchups, they will buy. Make no mistake about it: Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello has an unwavering belief in this group and its core. He will add a top-line winger to skate alongside Bo Horvat and Anders Lee.

Could it be a shocker? Definitely. It’s quietly known by those around the league that Elias Pettersson may be a player of interest to the Islanders, but he’s been taken off the market by the Canucks. That alone shows the type of big-game hunting Lamoriello may decide to do to replace Barzal if the team keeps winning.

Would Lamoriello part with the 2025 first-round pick? Yes. It’s not an asset that the Islanders are married to if it means acquiring a bonafide piece to help now and in years to come, just like the four straight first-round picks Lamoriello traded have brought to the Islanders.

With the deadline still a bit farther out, a clear target may not be in mind. Brock Boeser is another name that fits the potential mold, especially with Palmieri’s expiring contract. Does the versatile and (cheap) Rickard Rakell entice the Islanders? Maybe.

Without Barzal, the wins and losses this week will have an added weight to exactly what the Islanders will do at this upcoming trade deadline. Buckle up.