The Curious Case of Alexander Romanov: Trade or Extend?

The New York Islanders are not in a good place right now. They sit 28th in the NHL and last place in the Metropolitan Division. However, they are just five points outside the second wild card place, so it’d be very hard to say they’re definitively out of it. All it would take is an extended win streak.

That’s where the trouble kicks in. The Islanders have not had an extended win streak this season. Heck, they’ve only won two in a row twice all year. They sit at 14-18-7, meaning they’ve lost 10 more games than they’ve won. A large part of that is thanks to poor special teams, with the 32nd-ranked power play and penalty kill on pace to have the lowest percentage in NHL history. It sits at a measly 63.5%.

A large part of the kill is Alexander Romanov, the 24-year-old (who turns 25 on January 6th) defenseman for the Islanders. He is largely expected to take a big step forward into becoming a bonafide shutdown defenseman in this, his fifth NHL season.

Romanov’s Struggles:

Instead, the kill has floundered while Romanov’s struggled at times. Notably, he missed 11 games due to an injury in November, something that surely hasn’t helped matters. Since his return, he has not stabilized the flailing kill, nor has his pairing with Noah Dobson been the clear top pair that the Islanders have hoped for.

Romanov’s struggles are not limited just to the penalty kill. Head Coach Patrick Roy spoke candidly about Romanov’s game on December 23: “The first thing we want from Romy is to defend. We want him to play strong in his own zone. We want him to be physical. That’s the first thing we want. And after that, he’s free to go in the rush, but the first thing he needs to take care of is his defense. To me, he is a shutdown defenseman. He needs to play against top players. But he’s not just a stay-at-home defenseman. He’s a guy that played well in his own zone. That’s the first thing he needs to do.”

Parsing Roy’s words, it’s pretty clear he isn’t quite happy with where Romanov’s game is at. Too often, Romanov has been either beaten clean or caught out of position. The night following those quotes, the Islanders lost 7-1 to the Buffalo Sabres. 

For those saying it takes time for a physical defenseman to turn the corner and become a shutdown guy, that’s not untrue. However, Romanov has played 318 games in the NHL already. He’s 25 on Monday and has yet to show the ability to become an efficient shutdown defender.

Let’s compare his early career to that of Adam Pelech. Pelech’s age 25 season took place in the 2019-20 season, one where he tore his Achilles and returned for the bubble playoffs. By the time Pelech even got hurt, it was well-known how effective he was as a shutdown guy. He also had less than 250 games of experience in the NHL and achieved that.

It’s far from over for Romanov, but it seems the dream of him becoming the next Pelech may have sailed away.

The Emergence of Isaiah George and How it Affects Romanov:

Even if all of that is true, it does not make a case to ditch the 25-year-old defender. Normally, there are no questions about locking him up through the rest of his prime. However, that’s not the full picture.

Isaiah George, the 20-year-old defender who has emerged as the best story of the year for the Islanders complicates matters significantly.

George played with Dobson throughout Romanov’s injury and even thereafter with Pelech out. George and Dobson worked extremely well together. So well, in fact, there was even thought of leaving them together before Roy returned to his opening night pairs, with George staying in for the injured Mike Reilly.

George’s emergence on the left side forces an issue upon the Islanders. It makes them ask whether Romanov holds more value here or in a potential trade for better forwards, particularly if Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri are dealt ahead of the deadline.

Romanov’s contract extension, as highlighted this past summer, could cost a lot of money. With George already here and having proven he can skate 20+ minutes a night, it feels smart not to commit to Romanov.

That doesn’t even mention the raises the Islanders must pay Maxim Tsyplakov, Simon Holmstrom, and Dobson. All three join Romanov as RFA’s this July.

Trade Romanov?

The argument for trading Romanov starts with George’s emergence. Following that, moving Romanov could make a ton of sense for the Islanders’ cap situation.

Instead of committing a chunk of the cap to Romanov, they could turn him into a multitude of options. A physical defender with shutdown capabilities usually goes for at least a first-round pick around the trade deadline.

That’s one route, but you could also use Romanov as a big piece in another trade for a flashy new forward, one to replace Nelson or Palmieri. Or, if you use it for picks, it gives you valuable cap space for free agency in a year where some of the following players may hit the market: Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Nikolaj Ehlers.

Those are some serious big-time names, and they hardly do make it to market, but it’s now January and there’s been no indication on any of those three names that they’re close to extensions.

The other argument is to try and move Pelech. Pelech holds a full NTC until July 1 and is under contract at $5.75 annually until 2029. Trying to move Pelech likely costs the Islanders valuable assets, something they cannot afford to give out at this time.