Are the Islanders Getting Underrated After a Strong Summer?

The New York Islanders’ summer is all but over. All that’s left to do is sign RFA Maxim Tsyplakov to a new contract, and then the roster is set. The Islanders have 16 clear forward candidates for roster spots.

One thing’s clear: The Islanders’ roster has improved offensively. Jonathan Drouin and Maxim Shabanov are slam-dunk winger improvements, both of whom possess high-output potential, but a very low floor.

Better Roster:

There’s no question this is the best forward group the Islanders have had in many years. Their biggest weaknesses were special teams. The Islanders brought in two potential high-end power-play specialists in Drouin and Shabanov, along with a fresh assistant coach to run a new system. Meanwhile, Emil Heineman adds a ton to a penalty kill, while a new assistant coach running the system will do wonders.

The Islanders’ ace in the net, Ilya Sorokin, remains the starting goaltender.

The team’s defense will be different. Noah Dobson‘s gone. Matthew Schaefer‘s here, and boy, he looks special. On the right side, it’s going to be something unique. There’s extremely high upside offensively with Tony DeAngelo and Adam Boqvist, but both have shaky defensive figures. Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield, when healthy, can be extremely effective defensively.

The Islanders are rolling the dice on defense, as it’s very clearly a boom-or-bust group.

On paper, this is a better Islanders’ team than last season’s. That’s before you factor in Mathew Barzal missing 52 games last season, arguably the biggest reason the team failed last season. The Islanders will have around $3.5-5 million in cap space once the roster is finalized in October, so a ton of space to potentially add.

So, surely the Islanders’ playoff odds reflect an improved squad, one who was one controversial call away from holding a spot in April.

What the Odds Say:

At multiple sportsbooks, the Islanders’ odds are long, ranging from +164 (FanDuel) to +235 (DraftKings & BetMGM). Those types of odds are reserved for a team expected to finish bottom 10 in the league, and not coming particularly close to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the New York Rangers are heavily favored to make the playoffs despite subtracting more than they added this summer. The Washington Capitals are the sneakiest regression candidates in the NHL, with four forwards shooting 19% or better, all of whom are significantly worse career shooters. That’s a team that’s heavily favored despite not changing a lot of things, banking on everything going right again.

It’s hard to argue with the Devils and Hurricanes’ placements, as both possess the best rosters in the division. As for the Atlantic Division, it remains completely loaded at the top, and it’s easy to see the division returning the same five playoff teams.

That would leave the Islanders having to pass the upstart Senators or Canadiens, or landing a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division. The group battling for that spot will include the Islanders, Rangers, and Capitals. The Columbus Blue Jackets could get involved, but they haven’t exactly improved this summer. It’s essentially the same group that fell short last season, though they had their own injury woes. The Flyers and Penguins will finish in a distant seventh and eighth.

If the Islanders go 0-4-0 against the Rangers again, then yes, they’ll miss the playoffs. That feels rather unlikely, as it would give the Rangers the longest win streak over the Islanders in their history.

Are the Islanders Getting Underrated?

So, that all leads to the entire premise: Are the Islanders currently getting underrated? Yes, they are. The Islanders, as currently constructed, have significantly better depth than the Rangers and Blue Jackets. The Capitals likely won’t get a combined 83 goals out of Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson, and Jakob Chychrun. There’s a world where they receive half those goals from those three.

The Islanders, Rangers, and Capitals should all be close together in odds. Instead, both the Rangers and Capitals are consistently -200 or better to make the playoffs, while the Islanders lag far behind.

It seems quite clear to this eye that’s off, and the Islanders are a lot closer to winning than common thought dictates. Of course, injuries and defense are the biggest areas of concern. There’s very much a world where the Islanders are not in it, and limp through the season and continue to retool. There’s just as likely a path for the Islanders to win 45 games and finish third in the Metropolitan Division.