Evaluating How Patrick Roy Has Done as Coach After Last Night’s Outburst

The New York Islanders season is all but lost. They’ve lost six straight games (0-4-2), including the last four losses all coming in regulation.

The Islanders’ playoff odds have plummeted. They’re sitting a 2.9% chance, according to Moneypuck.com. They’d have to leapfrog not one, not two, but four teams to make the playoffs. It’s not very likely to happen.

Last Monday night, for a very brief window around 10 o’clock on the East Coast, it looked like the Islanders had put themselves into a playoff spot. Kyle Palmieri scored a game-winning goal with 9.6 seconds to go that the referee immediately disallowed for a phantom goaltender interference. The league upheld the call on the ice, and the Islanders lost to Columbus in a shootout.

New York hasn’t recovered. They’ve been outscored 20-10 in the four games since. For large portions of games, the team looks disinterested. The only consistent line the Islanders have would be the Pierre Engvall-Casey Cizikas-Hudson Fasching trio.

Little mistakes, little details, all completely failing the Islanders. Unfortunately, those details and mistakes are not just little. Ryan Pulock called out the team last night after the loss. Previously, former Islander Cal Clutterbuck expressed shock at Islanders’ coach Patrick Roy outwardly dismissing those “little details,” saying it’s what made those Barry Trotz-era Islanders so good.

So, how is Roy doing as a coach? Good, bad, somewhere in the middle? First, let’s start with his contract. When the Islanders hired Roy, it was reported he signed a 2.5-year deal, lasting through the 2025-26 season. Since then, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple confirmed Roy signed a multi-year extension this past summer, so it’s safe to say he isn’t going anywhere.

Roy’s Not-So-Spectacular Record:

Through Roy’s first 111 games behind New York’s bench, he has a 52-44-15 record, good for a points percentage of .536. That includes not one but two extended winning streaks, a seven-game heater this year, and an 8-0-1 finish to last season. While you can’t take those away from him, without those two streaks, he’s got a record of 37-44-14.

In terms of his .536 points percentage as coach, it’s the lowest of any Islanders’ coach since Jack Capuano’s .536 over parts of seven seasons. Capuano contended with rebuilding the Islanders for his first two years, then he snuck the team into the 2012-13 playoffs before the team lost John Tavares to injury during the Olympics for the rest of the 2013-14 season, forcing the team to miss the playoffs.

Islanders Recent Coach Records Compared to Roy’s:

Over Capuano’s final five seasons, he compiled a record of 167-126-43, a points percentage of .561, the highest of any New York coach outside of Trotz in 20 years. Capuano oversaw the only playoff series win for 25 seasons, a 2016 series win over the Florida Panthers, along with a tight seven-game series with the Washington Capitals in 2015.

Capuano, after a slow start in 2016-17, was fired and his replacement Doug Weight garnered a 59-49-14 record, a .541 points percentage, and zero playoff berths in either of his two seasons behind the bench. That was a sample size of 122 games and a freshly-hired Lamoriello fired Weight promptly.

Lamoriello then hired Barry Trotz, who is the best coach for the Islanders since Al Arbour, posting a .587 points percentage over his four seasons with the Islanders. After Trotz missed the playoffs in 2022, New York surprisingly fired him and promoted his longtime associate Lane Lambert to head coach.

Lambert didn’t too long. Last winter, after just 18 months in charge, Islanders Team President & General Manager Lou Lamoriello made a big decision. Lamoriello fired Lane Lambert after he coached the Islanders for 127 games to a 61-46-20 record.

Lambert’s points percentage was .559 through his 127 games with the franchise.

Notice, with the primes of players like Tavares, Bailey, Nelson, and Lee, every coach listed has a higher points percentage than Roy.

Is Roy Doing a Better Job Than Lambert Was?

This could be the biggest question of all. On pure paper, the answer is no. Lambert’s .559 point percentage clears over Roy’s .536 pretty easily.

However, Lambert did have a younger core. Both coaches dealt with major injuries to Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield. Both have been eliminated by the Carolina Hurricanes in their sole playoff appearances.

As for Lambert, he made the playoffs in his first season despite not having Bo Horvat for the first 52 games and losing Mathew Barzal for the final 24. He oversaw the best stretch of Noah Dobson’s career, where Dobson scored six goals and 39 assists for 45 points in New York’s first 45 games of the 2023-24 season. After game 45, Lamoriello fired Lambert.

In Dobson’s next 97 games, all under Patrick Roy, he’s recorded just 60 points, a sharp downturn from his point-per-game form. Dobson also suffered a pair of injuries, one late last season and then an early season injury this year, both of which have hampered the budding defenseman.

What Else Has Gone Wrong for Roy:

While that’s not fully on Roy by any means, a coach’s job is to get the best he can out of his players. It’d be very hard to argue that Roy has gotten the best out of Dobson, arguably the most important player on the roster for this season.

Roy’s inability to channel offense is far from solely on him. He saw Brock Nelson get traded away at this deadline. He has an extremely streaky top-six, along with a bottom-six that is not exactly dripping with offensive talent.

The issues started before the Nelson trade, though. According to Sportlogic via TSN, the Islanders have the seventh-worst expected goal percentage in the NHL this season. Yes, they’ve dealt with a plethora of injuries. That doesn’t mean Roy’s done a good enough job this season.

What’s Gone Wrong Outside of His Control:

Injuries. This entire season has been filled with injuries. The entire opening night’s defense missed over a dozen games to injuries, with multiple coming in the same game.

Barzal’s played just 30 games this season. Semyon Varlamov went out for the season in November, forcing Roy to overplay Sorokin from that moment onward. Once he trusted Marcus Hogberg, Hogberg went down for over a month.

Lamoriello traded Nelson. A team struggling to score goals traded their leading goalscorer for three seasons running. Yet, the team would not give up. Roy squeezed life out of a middling, aging, and mediocre roster. There are bright young spots, from Dobson and Romanov to Simon Holmstrom and Maxim Tsyplakov. Adam Boqvist fits Roy’s system to a tee and should be back next season.

With all the injuries and then the Nelson trade, you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach who could get a better record from this squad than Roy has.

Over his entire tenure, if I graded Roy right now, he’d be around a B-. Yes, he’s had some fantastic moments, including prolonged winning streaks and sneaking into the playoffs last season. The lows, however, are lower than any coach in recent memory. Whether that’s his fault or the rosters is still up for debate. After last night, we know how Roy feels.

Last Night’s Outburst a Bigger Sign:

Last night’s tirade against Anthony Duclair brought into the public eye the clear frustration Roy has built up with the team. Nobody on the planet has more will to win and passion for hockey than Roy. That’s what makes the recent string of mediocre, semi-lifeless efforts so confounding.

Duclair, Roy’s target last night, signed with the Islanders specifically to play under Roy again after they were a coach-player duo in Duclair’s junior days. It could just be Roy sending a message to a veteran player he’s known for over a decade. Or it just became where he channeled his anger.

Whether it’s a motivation tactic or not, the message came through loud and clear. Roy had previously gone after Pierre Engvall in the media, and it’s helped eventually spark an Engvall resurgence. Roy hasn’t publicly said a word, but one imagines he has immense frustration with his entire defensive core (outside of Adam Boqvist), as they’ve all played enough NHL games to not make the mistakes they’ve made.

With just eight more games this season, Roy and Lamoriello will begin plotting moves for the summer and next season. With a depleted roster, Roy has no choice but to keep pushing.

Lamoriello, at the deadline, promised change in the summer. The only certainty for now is that Lamoriello and Roy are locked in for next year unless something stunning changes.