Despite the Negativity, the Islanders Can Still Make the Playoffs

Okay, I know that headline is crazy. The New York Islanders (15-18-7), currently 15th in the Eastern Conference and 27th in the NHL do not look like a good bet to catch fire and make the playoffs. However, with one glance at the standings, you can very easily see a path forming.

After Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech, and Anthony Duclair all returned from early-season injuries and with the Islanders hovering right around NHL .500, it seemed the time had arrived to turn the corner. Instead, the team sputtered and went into a 2-6-0 funk, losing three straight to the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

In a vacuum, going on that stretch and sinking all the way to last place in the Metropolitan Division and 15th in the East, the season is over. Instead, there is not one team ready to step up and seize the wild card spot. What’s more, the Boston Bruins are in absolute free fall and have gone 0-4-1 in their last five games, all while playing 43 games, the most in the Eastern Conference.

The Bruins have 45 points and sit third in the Atlantic Division, but the Tampa Bay Lightning have 44 points with 38 games, so in reality, the Bruins are in the Wild Card Race. With how poor they’ve been most of the year, that spot is very much up for grabs. The Islanders have three games in hand on Boston and have 37 points. Giving away a 4-2 lead in Boston may end up a larger deal than initially thought.

The Path:

The Islanders’ path is incredibly straightforward. Tomorrow, they play the NHL’s number one team, the Vegas Golden Knights, in Las Vegas. On Saturday, they head to Utah to play the Hockey Club for the first time since the season opener.

If they can manage even just a split of those two games, the Islanders head home for a season-long seven-game homestead. This is the path. On that homestand, the Islanders do not play a murderer’s row.

The Islanders play teams in the thick of the wild card race, starting with the Ottawa Senators. They play the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets sit in the second wild-card place. The Philadelphia Flyers head to town not once but twice during the home stand, and the first road game after is in Philadelphia. The Carolina Hurricanes are in town on January 25th.

Finally, the San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche come to town from the Western Conference.

If, and it’s a big if with how the Islanders have performed on a regular basis this season, the Islanders can manage an incredibly strong stretch at home, with a baseline record of 5-1-1 after a split in Vegas and Utah, the Islanders would find themselves 21-20-8.

That would give them 50 points through the first 49 games of the season. The two must-have games of the set are the Senators and the Blue Jackets. Those are two teams you cannot afford to give points to, especially after you gift-wrapped the Bruins a point in the third period this past weekend.

That said, this all starts with the one thing Head Coach Patrick Roy heavily implied is missing—confidence. After the 5-4 overtime win in Boston, the media asked Roy if this could finally give the team confidence. Roy said, “I hope so. I really do. I really hope so.”

Brock Nelson’s Slump:

Brock Nelson has not scored in 17 games. It’s an unbelievable stretch for him, a guy who’s scored 30+ goals in the last three seasons. It’s cause for concern, but it almost feels like once he gets one, he will get going.

The slump has hurt the Islanders immensely. Without his scoring punch, the league’s worst power play has suffered even more. Nelson and Kyle Palmieri kept the Islanders afloat all season with their high-scoring starts, while Barzal and Duclair got hurt and Bo Horvat slumped.

Now, it’s time for his teammates to pick him up even more and find a way through the tough spell.

In the last two seasons, the Islanders churn around NHL .500 and then peak and rip off long winning streaks. Last year, they closed 8-0-1 to make the playoffs. In 2022-23, the team acquired Bo Horvat and went on their best stretch of the season in March to make the playoffs.

The lows this year have been lower. The question is if the high is coming at all, and if it is, how high will it be? There’s no doubt a lot of talent on this team. They truly can win when they’re at their best.

The key is finding that rhythm in consecutive games and going on a run, something they’ve been unable to do through the first 40 games. The final chance to turn it around starts tomorrow in Vegas.