By the Numbers: Finding Noah Dobson’s Perfect Defensive Partner

During locker clean-out day this past weekend, one thing became abundantly clear about the Islanders and their existing defensive corps: The lack of stability, through injuries, roster changes, and Head Coach Patrick Roy’s rotation of pairs affected every single defenseman on the team.

Noah Dobson was one of the players heavily affected by these things. He constantly changed partners, logging heavy minutes with a rotating cast of partners in a contract year.

No Partner Consistency for Dobson:

“It was interesting,” said Dobson. “I mean, it felt like it was a new D partner every other game, every other week. But sometimes that’s how it goes in a season with lots of injuries, a lot of moving parts, guys in and out, new guys coming in. So you’re trying not to change your game too much. Try and be adaptable with whatever you’re playing with.”

Dobson clearly understood the reasons why and eloquently pointed them out. Even so, it’s a frustrating process for any player. Dobson finished his answer by saying, “It definitely was a revolving door all season.”

Dobson played 70 games this season. Entering the year, he was viewed consistently around the league as the Islanders’ #1 defenseman. Usually, that brings a certain amount of stability to the table.

Not for Dobson. Out of those 70 games, he played the most with Alexander Romanov. Once Dobson came down injured, the team signed Tony DeAngelo. From that moment forward, Romanov played with DeAngelo almost exclusively for the rest of the year.

Dobson Compared to Peers:

Evan Bouchard played 987 minutes with Mathias Ekholm. Cale Makar played over 1,100 minutes with Devon Toews. Quinn Hughes, who played just 68 games, logged over 600 minutes with Filip Hronek.

One thing from that list becomes clear: with consistency comes improved chemistry. Dobson started with Romanov, and the two had some decent analytics, but the one-ice results were not amazing. Romanov played through broken cartilage in his ribs during the first half of the year, right when he played with Dobson. That surely didn’t help matters.

Dobson’s next two most-frequent partners were Isaiah George (204 minutes) and Adam Pelech (184 minutes). Lane Hutson played a comparable 481 minutes with Mike Matheson, but the rest of his year saw him log well over 300 minutes with Jayden Struble. Victor Hedman logged over 600 minutes with Darren Raddysh and another 500 with J.J. Moser.

Even for others who dealt with rotations, they played with one or two guys regularly. Dobson did not receive that luxury, something that surely affected his play. No other high-end offensive defenseman dealt with as much partner upheaval as Dobson.

Numbers Wise, Who was Dobson’s Best Partner?

He played 120+ minutes with five different defensemen, roughly equating to a minimum of six to seven games played with different defensemen. So, that naturally leads to this question: Who was his best partner and why?

By the numbers, Pelech is the runaway answer. In their 184 minutes, the two dominated their minutes. They only played roughly nine or so games together (assuming both hit their averages of ~20 minutes per game).

In those games, they generated an expected goals percentage of 71.2%, the best of any defensive pair in the NHL who played 110+ minutes together. In fact, if you expanded it even further to include forward lines, they outperformed everyone’s percentages, even topping Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl and Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas in terms of on-ice impacts.

Chart via Moneypuck.com

Those Edmonton trio played just over 250 minutes together, while the Colorado trio played just 217 minutes, roughly two more games together than Dobson and Pelech, making it an extremely compatible comparison. Dobson-Pelech made up the second-best forward/defenseman grouping in the NHL, falling just behind Tampa Bay’s Hagel-Cirelli-Kucherov line that played 246 minutes together throughout the season.

Dobson and Pelech: A Top Pair for Next Season:

Dobson couldn’t suppress a smile when I asked about playing with Pelech. “It was really comfortable playing with Pelly [Pelech]. I think we started playing once he came back from injury. He plays a sound, simple game. So, for me, I think that’s reliable. He’s always been in a good position, and he’s got a great stick. He’s really smart as well. So yeah, I thought we played well together. Yeah, really enjoyed playing with Pelly.”

Dobson also said it’d be “great” to play with Pelech more next season, and emphasized the chemistry the two showed.

As for Pelech’s point of view?

“Dobber’s [Dobson] so good. I feel like his underlying stuff would be great whenever he’s on the ice. He’s done such a good job of carrying the puck out of the zone, making the right plays. Just feels like when he’s out there, we have the puck more often. I guess when I’m with him, it allows me to just be [and play] a little more simple. [I just] kind of let him take the reins and be a good communicator. Just try to be a good partner in all the different ways that I can.”

The Islanders talked all season about wanting to play a simple game. For Pelech, one of, if not the smartest players on the team to come out and say he felt that comfortable playing with Dobson, along with heaping praise, it speaks volumes.

So, Why Didn’t They Play More This Year?

Despite some really good analytics and numbers, the on-ice performance of Dobson and Pelech went heavily against them. Despite generating an expected goals differential of 9.4 to 3.8,  the duo was outscored 8-7.

Not only is that indicative of poor finishing, a team-wide issue, but it’s indicative of incredibly bad luck and getting no saves from their goaltending. The only other pairing on the team with such good analytics came from DeAngelo and Pelech’s 65.6 xGF%. They played 118 minutes together. On ice, that duo outscored opponents 5-4, but were expected to outscore them 6-3. More bad luck, but nowhere near as bad as the luck Pelech and Dobson received.

Despite those numbers, Roy continued to go back to Pelech-Pulock, who played the most of any pairing together this season (509 minutes). That pairing, a staple back in the deep runs of 2020 and 2021, no longer clicks quite as well. Pelech’s worst numbers this season came alongside Ryan Pulock (48.3 xGF%).

It seems clear Pelech, a defensive specialist, thrives with an offensive defenseman. Dobson is the perfect partner. The two loved playing together, and the numbers, despite some bad on-ice luck, indicate they have the potential to form one of the best pairings in the NHL.

More of that, next season.

NUMBERS FOR THIS PIECE GATHERED THROUGH MONEYPUCK.COM and NATURALSTATTRICK.COM