The Three Ways the Rest of the Islanders’ Season Can Go

The New York Islanders wake up this morning in California sitting four points outside the final playoff spot. The team currently occupying the final wild card is the Ottawa Senators, with 67 points and aggressively bought at this past trade deadline.

Past that, the Islanders remain 13th in the Eastern Conference. However, they are just one point back of the Boston Bruins’ corpse with three games in hand, so in truth, they’ll really find themselves in the 12th soon.

That leaves the Islanders chasing the Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, and the Senators for the final playoff spot. The Columbus Blue Jackets occupy the top wild card spot with 68 points.

Through 61 games, the Islanders are 28-26-7. Outside of one seven-game winning streak, the team has played to a notable below .500 pace all season. That’s why it raised eyebrows when Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello opted against retooling his roster more in a seller’s market yesterday.

The seismic move of sending Brock Nelson out the door is a clear shock to the room. Andrew Gross of Newsday reported the team gathered that night in the hotel for one last gathering with Nelson, and it became very emotional.

Now, the team has to forget that and focus on the task at hand: the San Jose Sharks and climbing back into the playoff race. There are three ways the rest of the season will go.

#1: The Islanders, with their backs against the wall, fight back, and their playoff fate goes down to the wire:

The first way this can go is the way it has gone for the last two seasons. The Islanders are a proud, scrappy group that never gives in. Despite being 4-6-0 in their last 10 and trading away one of their ultimate leaders, this team will use that as motivation.

They’ll sweep the California trip and return home right in the thick of the wild race. The Islanders will find ways to keep themselves alive for the rest of the March gauntlet.

This team’s DNA includes never giving up. Even without their two highest-scoring forwards last season (Nelson and Mathew Barzal), they find a way to generate just enough offense to keep pace with the new young teams trying to break in. Bo Horvat steps up and leads the way in goals for the rest of the season and Simon Holmstrom’s breakout continues.

In this scenario, whether or not they’ll make it is a coin flip. It’ll come down to the last game in Columbus against the Blue Jackets.

#2: The Islanders fight, but without enough offense, play .500 hockey, and don’t come close to the playoffs:

According to Tankathon.com, the Islanders have the ninth-hardest remaining strength of schedule. After this weekend’s games with the lowly San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, it will catapult into the top five.

The Islanders still have to play the dominant Washington Capitals twice. Two more against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Games against the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes. Another one against the New York Rangers, who have outscored the Islanders 14-3 this year on aggregate.

With the offense even less threatening, even when the Islanders win some games, it won’t last too long. They don’t have the offense to put the puck in the net consistently. Even if the Islanders get on a winning streak, it’ll be followed up by another losing one.

By finishing .500 or so down this stretch run, the Islanders will also take themselves outside of the top 10 of the 2025 NHL Draft, something that’ll hurt just as much long term. Questions will be raised about why Lamoriello didn’t do more at the deadline to change things up for a group that isn’t good enough in this scenario.

#3: The Islanders look mentally affected by the Nelson Trade at First, then play .450 hockey or worse the rest of the season:

After three straight nights in a hotel in San Jose, California, and after an emotional goodbye to Nelson, the Islanders come out of the gate against the Sharks, looking totally disinterested and lose to the Sharks. Then, tomorrow night in Anaheim, the same thing happens against the Ducks. After those two games, the Islanders play three straight against playoff teams with their spots already locked in — Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers.

Faced with as bad as a five-game losing streak after the deadline, the Islanders sink into the bottom seven of the NHL once more, and attendance in UBS Arena continues to fall. The team’s veterans cannot consistently score, while Ilya Sorokin looks burned out after playing 32 of 36 games.

Immediately, the team sinks and finishes in the bottom seven of the NHL for the first time since the 2013-14 season. Questions about why Lamoriello didn’t sell off further dominate the talking points and could ultimately cost him his job in this scenario.

This is the worst-case scenario for the rest of the season, but it may not be all that unrealistic. Losing Nelson will undoubtedly hurt this offense and already affects the locker room. The departures of Josh Bailey and Cal Clutterbuck happened over the summer- not in a team hotel ahead of a California road trip.

No matter what, the next four days represent the inflection point of the season. Without winning a minimum of two of the three games, the season’s over, barring another 7+ game winning streak. Let’s just see where the chips ultimately fall.