What Would a Brock Nelson Extension Look Like? 3 Ideas:

It’s well-known across the hockey world that the New York Islanders are making a hard push to re-sign Brock Nelson. Nelson is currently at the 4 Nation Face-Off in Montreal with Team USA, but that doesn’t stop the Islanders.

Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello has moved past his plan-making stage and is into the action side of the ball. Nelson, 33, is due for an extension. However, his name is at the top of every trade board, and if he isn’t re-signed, he will bring back a major haul for the Islanders.

By all accounts, Lamoriello is currently telling interested teams that he’s trying to keep Nelson and extend his career as an Islander into the future.

That begs the question, what could the extension look like?

It goes without saying that any contract will come with a full No-Move Clause for the first year. Virtually every extension Lamoriello has given out thus far includes those types of clauses, so one can expect that to continue here.

The true question is money and term. There are three ways this can go.

Option 1: Two Years, $14 Million:

This is option number one and perhaps the least likely of the scenarios. At just two years, it would be the shortest term possible, taking Nelson through his age-35 season.

Nelson could be enticed because, in two years, the salary cap is expanding to almost $115 million, and as a pending free agent, he could cash in and essentially double dip with the exploding cap. However, he’d be age 35, turning 36 in October. His production has dipped this season so far, so taking short term now loses him money long-term.

The Islanders would love a shorter-term deal because it offers flexibility while not extending far into the future. Despite what many may think about Lamoriello, he isn’t a fan of long-term deals. He often uses them solely to keep the cap hits down, but after extending Bo Horvat, he said, “It’s too much for too long.”

He may have been tongue-in-cheek, but the sentiment stands.

Option 2: Three Years, $21 Million/Four Years, $24 Million:

These contracts are likely on the table already. It’s a perfect marriage, in theory. Nelson gets a well-deserved raise and some security with medium-term while also not overextending the Islanders and their cap. Nelson would almost certainly receive a full NMC with perhaps some protection falling off for the last year of the contract.

Nelson may not sign this for multiple reasons. First, he can (correctly) read the market and see a total dearth of centers available now and in the summer. Someone would overpay for a similar duration and fatten up this type of deal for the veteran.

Furthermore, Nelson simply may not want to extend with the Islanders. Publicly, there have been no indications of that. But in the back channels, Chris Johnston and Arthur Staple have both said it sure seems like Nelson wants to hit the open market and control his own fate.

Certainly, the Minnesota Wild come to mind at that point. It’s an obvious and natural fit, but one that is far from certain at this stage in time.

Option 3: Long-Term Extension

This third option is more open-ended than the others. In the past, Lamoriello has been unafraid to extend players well into the future, even past the point where they’d be in the NHL (see Ilya Kovalchuk’s Devils contract).

If it benefits the team and its cap flexibility now, the future be damned. Could Lamoriello give Nelson a seven-year deal worth around $35 million? Absolutely. That’d be locking up a top-six player for around $5 million on the cap for years to come.

Islanders fans would instantly revolt at the idea, though. They’re already the team, with half of their team signed through the next decade. Why add to that list? Well, in just three years, their highest cap hit is projected to be worth 8% of the cap. Mathew Barzal’s benchmark of $9.15 holds firm. Noah Dobson, who had a chance to eclipse that figure with another strong season, will not do so anymore.

Long-term deals have their obvious downsides. But for a team that is currently still in win-now mode, keeping Nelson’s cap hit as low as possible seems to be an obvious goal.